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JPY

06 Jun 2024

More policy recalibration

• Consolidation. US equities & yields little changed. USD slightly softer with EUR inching up after the ECB cut rates but was vague about future moves.• US jobs. Monthly US employment report in focus tonight. Signs conditions are cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets. This may drag on the USD.• Other data. China trade figures out today. New RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser speaks. Next week US Fed meets, with US CPI & AU jobs also due. Consolidation was the name of the game across most major markets overnight. While European equities edged up (EuroStoxx600 +0.7%) the US S&P500...

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05 Jun 2024

BoC cuts rates. ECB set to follow.

• Positive tone. Equities higher, while bond yields fell. BoC delivered its first rate cut this cycle. There were more signs the US labour market is cooling.• FX moves. Limited net moves in currencies. USD index a touch firmer, with a softer JPY the main driver. EUR & AUD treading water.• Data flow. ECB tonight. A rate cut is fully priced. Q1 AU GDP confirmed growth momentum is weak. But this is what is needed to tame inflation. It was a generally positive tone across markets overnight. European and US equities rose, with strong gains in technology stocks coming through....

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03 Jun 2024

More signs of a US slowdown

• US ISM. A weaker US manufacturing ISM rattled nerves. The drop in US bond yields has weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• Labour market. US JOLTS due tonight. Non-farm payrolls out on Friday. Signs the US jobs market is cooling may exerted more pressure on the USD.• AU data. Q1 GDP due tomorrow. More inputs released today. Modest growth anticipated. But offshore forces/USD trends have more of an AUD impact. A surprisingly weak US ISM manufacturing survey, a leading indicator for cyclical momentum in the economy, rattled a few market nerves overnight. In contrast to expectations predicting...

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02 Jun 2024

Central banks & US jobs in focus this week

• Positive tone. US bond yields lost ground as more US data underwhelmed. This gave US stocks a boost on Friday & exerted pressure on the USD.• AUD moves. AUD edged higher. Domestic & offshore data might generate some intermittent AUD swings this week.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 GDP is due (Weds). Offshore, the BoC (Weds) & ECB (Thurs) could cut rates, while the US jobs report (Fri) will be a focal point. There was a more upbeat tone across markets at the end of last week. US and European equities rose on Friday. The S&P500 outperformed (+0.8%), although this...

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31 May 2024

Slowing US Economy Contributes to Downbeat Mood

Bad news is bad news again. Stock markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar all declined yesterday when revised data showed the US economy expanding by less than initially estimated in the first quarter. Gross domestic product rose at a 1.3 annualised rate in the first three months of the year, sharply lower than the 1.6 percent originally calculated, and much slower than than the 3.4-percent pace hit in the last quarter of 2023. An inflation measure was also revised down to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent, and household spending, a critical driver of overall growth, was marked down to 2...

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