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JPY

08 Sep 2025

Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Reports

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors keep an eye on international developments and await inflation data that could alter US monetary policy expectations across the front end of the curve. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm, equity futures are setting up for gains at the North American open, and the dollar is trading slightly lower against its major peers after a relatively-subdued reaction to Friday’s data. Markets are assigning better than 100-percent odds to a rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve’s meeting after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report delivered incontrovertible evidence of a slowdown in US labour...

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07 Sep 2025

US stall speed

• US jobs. Weaker than forecast US jobs report. US Fed rate cut expectations increase. Lower US bond yields weigh on USD. AUD & NZD firmer.• Fed policy. Step down in employment points to a series of rate cuts by US Fed. Markets toying with the idea of a 50bp move later this month.• Key Events. In the US, revisions to non-farm payrolls in focus this week, as are producer prices & CPI inflation. ECB also meets. No change expected. Global Trends The state of the US jobs market was in the spotlight on Friday and the data (once again)...

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04 Sep 2025

Bond Market Turmoil Eases As Labour Markets Slow

A fragile sense of calm is returning to financial markets this morning as investors revert to betting on an aggressive easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury is back down to 4.88 percent after flirting with the 5-percent threshold, long-dated bonds in both the UK and Japan are coming off levels last hit in the nineties, and spreads within the euro area are contracting, pointing to an easing in funding concerns. North American equity futures are pointing to a mildly-positive open, and the dollar is holding steady against its major counterparts ahead of tomorrow’s...

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03 Sep 2025

Sentiment turnaround

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment overnight with equities rising, bond yields falling, & the USD weaker. AUD/USD rebounded.• US data. US job openings weaker than expected. Cracks in the US jobs market are widening. US Fed looks set to lower rates over the next few meetings.• AU GDP. Growth stronger than forecast. Private sector activity picked up. RBA Gov. Bullock indicated if this continues “may not” need as many rate cuts. Global Trends A bit of a reversal of fortunes overnight with the previous sessions modest bout of risk aversion unwinding. European and US equities rose with the tech-focused...

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03 Sep 2025

Strains Grow As Investors Shun Long-Term Debt

A global selloff in long-term government bond markets is extending this morning amid a wholesale reappraisal of sovereign debt and inflation risks. Thirty-year securities are coming under the heaviest pressure, with US Treasury yields hovering near 5 percent, Japanese ultra-long bonds holding near record highs*, and British gilts offering their highest rates since 1998. Shorter-dated yields remain comparatively stable, but curves are steepening across the advanced economies as investors demand higher premiums for holding long-term debt. We think technical factors are at work, to some extent. After a later-summer lull, bond markets have been flooded with new issuance in recent...

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