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JPY

18 Aug 2024

Jackson Hole in focus

• US trends. US equities power ahead, while bond yields & the USD lost ground. AUD up at a multi-week high despite the slump in iron ore.• Fed speech. Fed Chair Powell speaks later this week. Will he push back on the still aggressive near-term rate cut expectations?• Event radar. In addition to the Jackson Hole speech the global PMIs (Thurs), Japan CPI (Fri) & NZ retail sales (Fri) are also due. It was a rather subdued end to a busy week on Friday with limited new economic information released to challenge the status quo. Equities continued to move higher...

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15 Aug 2024

US recession risks continue to fade

• US data. Positive US jobless claims & retail sales data has further reduced recession fears. US equities jumped up, as did bond yields. USD firmer.• AUD outperformance. Another solid Australian jobs report helped the AUD hold its ground against the USD & strengthen on the crosses.• RBA speakers. Gov. Bullock & others testify to Parliament. Domestic conditions still suggest the RBA is on a slightly different path to its peers. A positive jolt across risk markets with a few more US data points reducing fears a recession is imminent. Initial jobless claims (the gauge of how many people are...

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14 Aug 2024

RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle

• Steady ship. US CPI largely as expected. Consolidation in markets. NZD underperformed. This also exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD.• RBNZ cut. RBNZ delivered a 25bp cut & flagged many more to come. Fundamentals between AU & NZ are diverging. This is AUD/NZD positive.• Data flow. Today, the volatile AU jobs report, China activity data, UK GDP, & US retail sales are due. A couple of US Fed members also speak tonight. The latest US CPI inflation report was in focus overnight, and the largely as anticipated results generated a rather benign response. The annual pace of...

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14 Aug 2024

Risk Appetite Rises Ahead of US Inflation Print

Investors are struggling to restrain themselves ahead of consumer inflation data that is expected to help clear the way for a jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Treasury yields are sliding, equity indices are setting up for a positive open, and risk proxies like the Canadian dollar are advancing as market participants double down on a soft landing scenario in the US. The trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percentage point from Monday’s level after producer prices rose by less than forecast in July, pointing to a continued easing in underlying inflation pressures. The core producer...

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13 Aug 2024

Positive vibes

• Positive jolt. Soft US producer prices boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, while bond yields & the USD declined. AUD’s rebound has extended.• RBNZ today. AUD/NZD on the radar. RBNZ meets today. Markets & economists split on whether a cut is delivered. AUD/NZD volatility likely.• Data flow. US CPI inflation out tonight. UK CPI also due. Tomorrow, Australian jobs, the China activity data batch, & US retail sales are released. A subdued US Producer Price Index, a sign upstream inflation pressures are moderating, generated a positive jolt for risk sentiment overnight. US headline PPI rose just 0.1% in July,...

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