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JPY

22 Aug 2024

Reversal of fortune

• Market turn. US equities dipped, while bond yields & the USD rose. The reversal has taken some of the heat out of the AUD.• Data pulse. Solid US data & ‘cautious’ comments from Fed officials about the looming rate cut cycle underpinned the moves.• Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. A further push back on aggressive rate cut bets could see the USD’s revival extend. A reversal of fortune in markets over the past 24hrs. US equities dipped (S&P500 -0.9%), with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.7%). US bond yields have risen by ~5-7bps across the curve with the...

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22 Aug 2024

Trading Ranges Shrink As Jackson Hole Beckons

A sense of cautious optimism is settling over global markets this morning after payroll revisions and Federal Reserve minutes helped recalibrate expectations for the central bank’s policy actions this autumn. Trading ranges are narrowing across fixed-income, equity, and foreign exchange markets, with most major currency pairs moving sideways as participants avoid taking directional positions ahead of tomorrow’s appearance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said the number of jobs created in the year through March was significantly less than initially believed. Revisions subtracted 818,000 jobs from total payrolls over...

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20 Aug 2024

USD doldrums

• Mixed markets. Equities slip back, while bond yields & the USD lose ground. EUR above ~$1.11 for first time this year. AUD at ~1-month high.• Global events. JPY also stronger. BoJ research papers keep door open to more hikes. Canadian inflation slows & Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates again.• US data. Annual US payrolls revisions due tonight. Downward revisions look likely. PMIs (Thurs) & Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Fri) the main events. Mixed, albeit modest moves, across asset markets overnight. After a stellar run equities paused for breath with the US S&P500 slipping back (-0.2%), its first fall in 9...

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19 Aug 2024

USD on struggle street

• Risk on. Equities continue to climb with the S&P500 up for the 8th straight day. The USD has weakened. The AUD is up at a 1-month high.• Fed comments. A few Fed officials have suggested a cut in September is up for debate. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole later this week.• Already priced? But this already looks well priced in. Cautious comments from Powell could see US rate expectations & the USD rebound. No new major news continues to be good news for markets. Equities have continued to power ahead. The US tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed (+1.4%) with the...

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19 Aug 2024

Dollar Retraces Last Week’s Rebound on Easing Expectations

The case for an emergency-style half percentage-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting took a series of blows last week, helping boost Treasury yields and halt the dollar’s long slump. Inflation slowed in July, but exhibited no evidence of collapsing consumer demand. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell for a second consecutive week, suggesting that labour markets were not suffering the violent reversal feared only a few weeks earlier. And recession worries eased as headline retail sales accelerated by the most since last January. Jerome Powell is widely expected to telegraph a September rate cut in Friday’s appearance...

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