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JPY

Currencies Stabilise As Fed Expectations Retrace

Markets are recovering their footing after slipping on a banana peel early in yesterday’s session. August’s consumer price reading landed very close to economist expectations on a headline level, but a surprise monthly acceleration in the core measure spooked investors, triggering a surge in the dollar and a rout in equity markets and risk-sensitive currencies. Rationality eventually returned, but odds on a half-point rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting were left near 17 percent, down sharply from 33 percent prior to the report. Longer-term repercussions seem minimal. Although expectations for a more aggressive kickoff to the Fed’s easing cycle...

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Dollar Retreats as Trump’s Odds Slip

Financial markets are in relief mode this morning after Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president, reducing demand for hedges against a rally in the dollar or a resumption in trade war hostilities. The greenback is reversing its three-day rally, short-end Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are retreating ahead of the open. In related news, Harris managed to flip prediction market odds in her favour during a televised debate with former president Donald Trump. Economic policy details were limited, and neither of the candidates managed to land a knockout blow big enough to decide the race,...

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USD bouncing back

• Shaky sentiment. A bit of a rebound in risk sentiment overnight following more turbulence on Friday after the US jobs report & Fed comments.• Market swings. US yields near bottom of their range. USD has recovered some ground, while the NZD & AUD have lost altitude.• Event radar. US Pres. debate (Weds), US CPI (Weds), & ECB meeting (Thurs) in focus this week. Will the USD’s revival continue? Markets have enjoyed a relatively more positive start to the week as the dust settled following Friday nights US jobs report and comments by Fed officials which generated further turbulence. From...

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Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slower-than-anticipated pace of job creation through July and August, but soon reversed on evidence of underlying stability in labour markets – the unemployment rate edged lower, the prime age employment rate remained historically high, and growth in average hourly earnings showed signs of accelerating. A widely-anticipated speech from Governor Waller didn’t clarify things much either. Odds on a half-percentage-point move shot up as...

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Dollar Edges Lower Into Payrolls

The dollar is trading near a one-week low as the minutes count down to what could easily become the year’s most pivotal data release: the August non-farm payrolls report. With investors broadly convinced that the data will improve, but nonetheless set the stage for at least one jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve this autumn, the greenback is slipping against its major rivals, especially the yen, while Treasury yields are edging lower, and stock futures are coming under pressure. Consensus estimates suggest that the US added 165,000 new jobs in August, up from the 114,000 reported in July, but...

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