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JPY

03 Oct 2024

Middle East nerves

• Oil spike. Comments by US President Biden relating to the Middle East conflict pushed up oil. Shaky risk sentiment supported the USD. AUD a bit lower.• GBP weaker. Dovish BoE rhetoric weighed on GBP. AUD/GBP near levels last traded in mid-July. AUD/NZD higher ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs conditions are cooling may see the USD reverse course, but a lot will depend on geopolitics. Cautious trade across risk assets continued overnight. Nervousness about the situation in the Middle East remains with oil prices spiking ~5% higher on fears facilities in...

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03 Oct 2024

Dollar Keeps Climbing the ‘Wall of Worry’

The dollar is holding near a two-week high, boosted by safe haven demand and a diminishing sense of conviction in a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Oil prices are still grinding higher as investors await an expected Israeli retaliation for Tuesday’s Iranian missile attack, and risk appetite remains suppressed across the financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are sitting on circa-1.5-percent gains, North American equity markets are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is the only major currency sitting on gains for the last day. Incoming...

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01 Oct 2024

Middle East tensions rock the boat

• Geopolitics. Developments in the Middle East dampened sentiment. Equities & bond yields declined. USD a little firmer. AUD modestly lower.• Oil & vol. Brent crude prices increased, but now look to be tracking inline with fundamentals. Measures of volatility also not showing much stress.• NZD weaker. NZD fell, AUD/NZD rose. NZIER Survey showed price pressures are cooling fast raising the odds the RBNZ cuts rates by 50bps. Geopolitics trumped economics overnight with escalating tensions in the Middle East generating a bout of risk aversion. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, a few hours after the US had...

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30 Sep 2024

US Fed remains data dependent

• China focus. The surge in China’s equity market continued yesterday. Iron ore prices also higher. This helped the AUD add to recent gains.• Fed Chair. US yields & the USD clawed back some ground in overnight trade after Chair Powell tempered expectations about outsized rate cuts.• Data driven. US Fed is data driven. Interest rate expectations & USD will be sensitive to whether US data is stronger or weaker than predicted. Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the one hand the upswing in China’s equity market on the back of the stimulus push...

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29 Sep 2024

Will the US jobs market continue to buckle?

• Mixed markets. Equities in China continue to power ahead, while lower inflation weighed on European/US bond yields. USD near 2024 lows.• AUD holding. AUD remains near the top of the range it has occupied since early-2023. Diverging policy expectations & China stimulus are supportive.• Event radar. China PMIs released today. EZ CPI is out (Tues), while in the US non-farm payrolls rounds out the week. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks. Mixed fortunes across markets at the end of last week with geopolitical and economic forces push and pulling on different asset classes. China’s equity market continued to power...

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