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JPY

05 Nov 2024

The race is on

• Getting set. Risk assets outperformed overnight & the USD lost ground. A paring back of ‘Trump trades’ continued ahead of the big event.• US election. Voting progressively closes later today. The battleground states are key. Bursts of market volatility look likely as results flow out.• RBA holds. No change in rates or guidance. The RBA is standing out from the pack. Gradual/modest policy easing anticipated over 2025. Risk assets outperformed overnight as voting in the US election got underway. Given the narrowing in opinion polls and probability gauges over recent days market participants have continued to hedge their bets...

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04 Nov 2024

US election day

• Election jitters. A quiet start to the week with traders paring back some ‘Trump trades’. US equities eased & yields declined. USD a bit softer.• US politics. Polls & probability gauges suggest the result is a toss-up. Binary reaction to the outcome likely with volatility also on the horizon.• RBA today. No RBA policy changes expected. It may tweak its macro forecasts. We still think the start of its easing cycle is a story for H1 2025. It has been a relatively quiet start to the week with markets lasering in on the upcoming US Presidential Election. The narrower...

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04 Nov 2024

Dollar Softens Amid ‘Trump Trade’ Pullback

The greenback is down against all of its major rivals this morning after investors spent the weekend walking back bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. Final polls released yesterday showed the race headed toward a photo finish, with NBC News deadlocked at 49 percent-and-49 percent nationally, ABC News/Ipsos giving Kamala Harris a 49 percent-to-46 percent national edge, New York Times/Siena putting the vice president ahead in five of seven swing states, and the Des Moines Register suggesting that she could win in Iowa – a state long considered a lock for Trump. Major elements of the “Trump...

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03 Nov 2024

US election odds swing again

• Market vol. US jobs data & election polls whipsawed markets. USD lost ground this morning (AUD higher) after election polls/odds narrowed.• US election. Voting progressively closes over Wednesday morning AEDT. Market reaction to the result could be binary. Volatility anticipated.• Event radar. RBA meets (Tues) with the US Fed expected to cut rates (Fri AEDT). But this should be secondary to the US election. The sticker shock of a weaker than predicted US non-farm payrolls print and US election polls released over the weekend whipsawed markets on Friday night and this morning. On net, US equities increased (S&P500 +0.4%)...

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01 Nov 2024

Stress Climbs in Currency Markets

The dollar is holding steady and measures of expected currency volatility are ratcheting higher as global investors go to ground ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s presidential election. Ten-year Treasury yields are edging closer to the 4.30-percent threshold after softening briefly earlier in the week, North American equity markets are setting up for a defensive move after a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, and oil prices are pushing higher on reports of a potential Iranian escalation in its ongoing tit-for-tat cycle with Israel. Forecasts for job creation in this...

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