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JPY

31 Jul 2025

US jobs report in focus

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency for non-farm payrolls to exceed analyst forecasts the past few months. Will this continue?• AUD trends. The unfolding pull-back in the AUD isn’t unusual at this time of year. Late-July/August is typically a negative period for the AUD. Global Trends Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with US and European equities slipping back, bond yields consolidating, and the USD ticking up a bit further. The...

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31 Jul 2025

US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index—which excludes food and energy costs—rising 0.3 percent in June from the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, core prices rose 2.8 percent, slightly narrowing the gap between the Fed Funds rate and underlying inflation. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.3 percent relative to the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent...

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30 Jul 2025

USD jolt

• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations looking for the RBA to cut rates in August & deliver more ‘relief’ later this year.• Seasonal trends. USD rebound & unfolding AUD weakness inline with seasonal patterns at this time of year. Risk of more to come. Global Trends A run of positive US centric events boosted US bond yields and the USD overnight. Firstly, the latest batch of US data extended the recent...

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29 Jul 2025

Currency Traders Turn Cautious As Event Risks Multiply

The US dollar is gaining as investors turn more cautious ahead of a raft of important economic data releases and central bank decisions through the remainder of the week. In a pattern familiar to aficionados of the ‘dollar smile’ theory, the greenback is climbing on continued outperformance in the US economy, a firming in rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, and a dimming growth outlook in other major economies. The Japanese yen and British pound are treading water against a resurgent Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar is coming under sustained selling pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision,...

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28 Jul 2025

Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead

The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and measures of implied volatility are pushing higher as traders brace for an intense and tumultuous week. The euro is trading lower as investors process what looks like a lopsided deal. According to President Trump, imports from the EU will be tariffed at 15 percent—except steel and aluminium, which will remain at 50...

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