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JPY

19 Jan 2025

Get set for Trump 2.0

• Positive tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD rose at the end of last week. US data remains positive. Markets also positioning for Trump 2.0.• US policy. Pres. Trump will be in the drivers seat. Will he announce a range of measures after coming into power or is too much expected?• Event Radar. US Pres. Inauguration (Tues), NZ CPI (Weds), BoJ & MAS meetings (Fri), & global PMIs (Fri) in focus this week. Global TrendsGlobal equities ended last week on a positive note ahead of today’s US holiday and the US Presidential Inauguration (Tues 4am AEDT). A positive...

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16 Jan 2025

Holding on

• Mixed signals. US equities failed to push on despite further falls in bond yields. USD/JPY continues to slip back. AUD & NZD lose a bit of ground.• Data & comments. US consumer spending holding up. Fed’s Waller encouraged by inflation trends keeps the door open to more policy easing.• AU jobs. Another robust Australian labour force report. Unemployment better than RBA expecting. China data batch, which includes Q4 GDP, out today. Global Trends A mixed performance across markets overnight with the data flow and comments by US officials in focus. After yesterday’s strong rally US equities consolidated despite a...

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16 Jan 2025

Markets Pare Gains, But Remain Positive

Global financial markets are still in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s US consumer price index report showed core inflation rising by less than had been feared in December. The dollar reversed lower, ten-year Treasury yields dropped as much as 15 basis points across the curve, and equity markets soared through yesterday’s session, with only small adjustments occurring in this morning’s trading activity. We’re not sure this degree of relief is justified. Taken in combination with this week’s producer and import price data releases, it looks as if underlying inflation is stabilising just below the 3-percent level—well above pre-pandemic averages—with the...

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15 Jan 2025

US CPI boosts sentiment

• Inflation trends. Softer US & UK core CPI weighed on bond yields & supported risk sentiment overnight. The backdrop helped AUD & NZD edge higher.• AU jobs. Monthly labour force data due today. There is a risk of payback after a strong report last month. Softer figures could bolster RBA rate cut bets.• Data & politics. US retail sales out tonight. China data batch released tomorrow. Next week focus will be on the US Presidential Inauguration. Global TrendsUS and UK inflation was in focus overnight and downside surprises generated a ‘relief rally’ in some of the recently beaten-up markets....

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15 Jan 2025

Softening In Underlying US Inflation Triggers Global Relief Rally

Underlying inflation showed signs of decelerating in the United States last month, avoiding a widely-feared surge, and giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room as officials assess their next steps. The dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, Treasury yields are falling across the front end of the curve, and equity futures are surging as a relief rally unfolds across asset classes. Core price growth faded somewhat. According to data just published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.2 percent in December from the same period last year, up...

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