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JPY

12 Jan 2023

Anticipation Builds Ahead of Critical US Inflation Report

Markets are on high alert ahead of what might be the post-pandemic world’s most consequential economic data release: the US consumer price index. Consensus estimates suggest headline prices fell 0.1 percent month-over-month in December, decelerating to 6.5 percent annualized from 7.1 in the month prior. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to rise 0.3 and 5.7 percent. The risk of a violent adjustment in foreign exchange markets is real: an above- or below-consensus print could trigger a reappraisal of the odds on a 50 basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, and unleash sharp short-term moves in...

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10 Jan 2023

Markets Go Eerily Quiet As Data Calendar Calms

Currency markets are treading water this morning, with most majors turning in a mixed performance against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s all-important US inflation print. Treasury yields are moving in almost-imperceptible ranges, equity bourses are mostly flat, and the commodities complex is advancing incrementally as the session proceeds. The Canadian dollar is holding steady, but appears to be building a foothold that could support gains later in the week if US price growth subsides in line with expectations. Japan’s yen is trading on a more solid footing after Tokyo consumer prices jumped 4 percent year-over-year in December, topping market forecasts...

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03 Jan 2023

Market Briefing: Risk appetites – and the dollar – jump into a new year

Happy new year, and may all our market troubles last as long as our resolutions. Investors are in a relatively ebullient mood to kick off 2023, with most major equity indices pointing to a stronger open, while bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic slip. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are eking out small gains, but the greenback is almost a full percentage point higher on a year-to-date basis as traders trim excessive bets on the euro. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker after pushing through the 130 mark against the dollar in yesterday’s thin trading conditions. Investors...

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23 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Go Quiet Ahead of 2023’s Last Data Releases

‘Tis the day before the night before Christmas, and all through the markets, not a trader is stirring, not even one with a mouse. Trading ranges are narrow and volumes are down after better-than-forecast economic data triggered a selloff during yesterday’s session, lifting the dollar and crushing nascent rallies in risk-sensitive currencies. Upward revisions in consumer spending and business investment categories lifted third quarter gross domestic product to 3.2 percent annualized, up from the previously-reported 2.9 percent, and the number of jobless claims came in below economist estimates – suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are not delivering the...

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22 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Consumer Confidence Numbers Deliver Good Tidings for Financial Markets

In a festive combination, data released yesterday showed US consumers growing less worried about inflation and more optimistic on the economy. In December, the Conference Board’s measure of US consumer confidence climbed to its highest levels since April as income gains continued and price pressures began to ease. The headline index jumped to 108.3 in December from 101.4 in the prior month, supporting hopes for sustained corporate earnings growth. Inflation expectations fell to the lowest levels in a year, reducing some of the impetus behind the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. Markets rallied through much of the session, and are only...

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