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JPY

25 May 2025

Tariff sabre rattling

• Tariff news. Threats of increased US tariffs on the EU rattled nerves on Friday. US President Trump pushed out the deadline this morning.• FX trends. US growth challenges & policy uncertainty weighs on USD. AUD & NZD edge higher. AUD & NZD also outperform on the crosses.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). AU monthly CPI due (Weds). US PCE deflator released (Fri). Several US Fed members speaking. Global Trends Market nerves were shaken on Friday during the US trading session after President Trump rattled the ‘Tariff Sabre’ once again. The EU and Apple were in President...

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22 May 2025

Yields Push Higher as Debt Worries Intensify

Treasury markets are extending their losses this morning on worries that funding strains could reach unsustainable levels after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s broad-reaching tax-cut bill. By a 215-to-214 margin, the lower chamber passed what Trump has called his “one, big, beautiful” bill early this morning, with two Republicans and all Democrats voting against it. The 30-year Treasury yield is closing on the 5.15-percent threshold, nearing levels only temporarily breached during the Fed-induced selloff in 2023, and previously touched in 2007. The dollar giving back some of its overnight gains, and most of its major counterparts are...

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14 May 2025

‘Mar A Lago Accord’ Fears Unnerve Dollar Bulls

The dollar is extending its losses this morning, following reports that the United States and South Korea held talks on Seoul’s foreign exchange policies in early May – a development that may signal a shift in Washington’s focus from trade imbalances to currency concerns. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback has fallen more than a full percentage point against its peers in the euro area, United Kingdom, and Japan this week, bringing its year-to-date slump to more than 6 percent. The Korean won leapt higher along with many of its unpegged Asian counterparts after Bloomberg and Reuters cited sources saying...

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13 May 2025

Economic Scepticism and Soft Inflation Weigh on Dollar

Euphoria surrounding the weekend’s US-China tariff climbdown is fading this morning, and the dollar is retreating in the face of a third consecutive monthly undershoot in inflation data. Treasury yields are pushing lower, equity futures are pointing slightly higher, and safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are back to outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. Consumer price growth slowed in the United States last month, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more breathing space as it seeks to address slowdown risks in the economy. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price...

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11 May 2025

Words vs actions

• Positive talks. Constructive talks between US/China over the weekend. But a deal may take some time. This may temper the markets excitement.• Market trends. Equity futures have opened positively. USD index a little firmer. AUD & NZD ticked up thanks to relative strength on cross-rates.• Event Radar. In AU the monthly jobs report is out (Thurs). In the US, CPI, retail sales, import prices due this week. Tariff impacts will be looked for. Global Trends Markets consolidated at the end of last week with limited economic data released and with participants lasering in on the weekend meeting between US...

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