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JPY

03 Feb 2025

Headline driven markets

• Tariff news. Tariff-related risk aversion & the stronger USD unwound overnight. News tariffs on Mexico & Canada will be delayed boosted sentiment.• FX swings. After falling sharply AUD & NZD are back around where they ended last week. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated.• Data flow. In the US, JOLTS job openings due tonight. In NZ, Q4 jobs report is out tomorrow. But this can be overshadowed by tariff news. Global Trends The fallout from the US announcing trade tariffs on three of its largest trading partners (Canada, Mexico, China) rattled nerves and sent markets into a tailspin...

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03 Feb 2025

Trade Shock Roils Global Markets

The dollar is climbing, yields are rising and equity markets are setting up for sharp losses at the open after US President Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in what could quickly devolve into a global trade war. The administration said Saturday it will levy 25 percent import taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico—with Canadian “energy resources” subjected to a lower 10 percent levy—along with an extra 10 percent tariff on imports from China. If implemented immediately and sustained, this would represent the biggest increase in duties since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930—often blamed for deepening the Great...

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02 Feb 2025

Shots fired in the trade war

• Tariff news. US announced tariffs against Canada, Mexico, & China. This had been in the pipeline for a while. Canada also unveiled retaliatory action.• USD stronger. The news has boosted the USD this morning. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. Uncertainty & macro headwinds are usually USD supportive.• Event Radar. Tariff news will be in the drivers seat. Data-wise, jobs reports are out in NZ, Canada & the US this week. Several US Fed members also speak. Global Trends After much talk the first actual shots were fired in the US led Trump 2.0 trade war over the weekend....

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30 Jan 2025

Tariff volatility

• Tariff threat. President Trump rattled FX markets this morning after reiterating tariffs could be imposed on Canada & Mexico on Saturday. USD rose.• Macro pulse. Overnight the data showed that US growth outpaced the Eurozone. ECB cut rates again. More moves likely to revive activity.• AUD vol. The Trump comments exerted downward pressure on the AUD. More headline driven volatility likely over the period ahead. Global Trends The economic data flow picked up overnight with the relative outperformance of the US once again on show with tariff-related comments by US President Trump rattling a few FX market nerves this...

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29 Jan 2025

Inflation & the AUD

• Central banks. Another rate cut by the BoC & Riksbank, although forward guidance was removed. US Fed kept rates steady & signaled patience.• Modest moves. Mixed performance across equities. Bond yields ticked up. USD tread water. ECB expected to cut rates tonight. US GDP also released.• AU CPI. Core inflation slowed bolstering expectations for a February RBA rate cut. A rates recalibration is looming, but is the low AUD already factoring this in? Global Trends There were few data releases overnight and no new news regarding President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly around tariffs. Rather, central banks were in the...

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