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JPY

28 Jul 2025

Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead

The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and measures of implied volatility are pushing higher as traders brace for an intense and tumultuous week. The euro is trading lower as investors process what looks like a lopsided deal. According to President Trump, imports from the EU will be tariffed at 15 percent—except steel and aluminium, which will remain at 50...

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27 Jul 2025

Let’s make a deal

• Dealmaker. Trade optimism supported US equities & USD at end of last week. AUD & NZD drifted a little lower. EUR ticked higher this morning.• US/EU deal. Over weekend US/EU announced a 15% tariff framework. Deal is similar to US/Japan. More ‘stability’ but economic headwinds remain.• Event Radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). In the US this week earnings season continues, Q2 GDP & non-farm payrolls are out, & US Fed meets. Global Trends There was some relative outperformance in US markets at the end of last week. In contrast to modest falls across European/Asian equities on Friday the...

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23 Jul 2025

Risk Appetite Improves On US-Japan Trade Deal

A modest improvement in risk appetite is washing across markets after a trade deal between the US and Japan proved less economically-damaging than feared. The dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady, North American stock indices are printing gains at the open, and risk-sensitive units like the Australian and New Zealand dollars are climbing against their peers. In a social media post last night, President Donald Trump announced a deal that would set tariffs at 15 percent on imports of most Japanese products into the United States—a threshold lower than the 25 percent previously threatened. Under what Trump called the...

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22 Jul 2025

Intra-Day Volatility Falls As Newsflow Grinds To A Halt

Currency markets are turning in a mixed performance this morning amid an utter lack of new volatility catalysts. The dollar is holding steady in line with placid Treasury yields, most major currencies are trading within 20 basis points of yesterday’s close, and the yen is giving back some of yesterday’s gains after Prime Minister Ishiba’s governing coalition suffered losses in the weekend’s election. In the background, the dollar’s rebound appears to be fading. After investors spent much of early July correcting overly-bearish views on the American economy’s prospects by pushing monetary easing expectations back, short-term interest rates are reaching levels...

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21 Jul 2025

Positive vibes

• Upbeat tone. No news has been good news. US equities rose, while bond yields & USD slipped back. AUD a bit higher at start of new week.• RBA guidance. RBA meeting minutes out today. Governor Bullock speaks later in the week. Will the RBA support expectations looking for multiple cuts?• Data flow. Global PMIs due later this week. US corporate earnings also in focus with over 100 companies in S&P500 reporting over the next few days. Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week for risk assets. The US S&P500 (+0.1%) touched yet another...

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