JPY

• Upbeat tone. US equities end the week & month on positive footing. USD ticked higher. AUD & NZD drifted back. AUD a bit firmer on a few cross-rates.• RBA meeting. Given CPI RBA expected to hold (Tues). Near-term inflation forecasts to be revised up. Will RBA close the door on more cuts?• Event radar. In addition to the RBA, NZ jobs report due (Weds). In the US, official data may be delayed, so things like ADP employment are in focus. Global Trends It was a relatively quiet end to last week and October with modest net moves across most...

• Fed gyrations. US Fed cut rates but Chair Powell pushed back on views it will go again in December. Higher US yields helped the USD intra-day.• AU CPI. Sizeable upside surprise in Q3 AU inflation. RBA expected to stay on hold. We think this should be AUD supportive over the medium-term.• Macro events. BoJ meets today. ECB holds court tonight. Also on the radar is a meeting between President’s Trump and Xi. Global Trends Ahead of today’s meeting between President’s Trump and Xi (from ~1pm AEDT) central banks were in focus overnight. Outside of bond yields there were relatively...

• Positive vibes. Gains across the tech-sector pushed US equities to record highs. Base metals rose. AUD outperforms ahead of AU CPI data.• AU inflation. Q3 CPI due today. Acceleration in core inflation forecast. RBA rate cut expectations have been pared back. This might have further to go.• US Fed. Another US Fed rate cut anticipated tomorrow morning. Guidance will be important. USD volatility likely around the event given what is priced in. Global Trends The upbeat tone in risk assets extended overnight. Gains across the tech-sector (NASDAQ +0.8%) pushed US equities to fresh record highs (S&P500 +0.2%) with solid...

• Upbeat tone. Softer US inflation, solid PMIs & positive US/China trade talks support risk sentiment. Equities rose. AUD & NZD strengthen.• US Fed. Upside US inflation risks fading while downside jobs risks rising. US Fed looks set to cut rates this week & should keep door open to more.• AU inflation. Gov. Bullock speaks tonight, Q3 CPI due Weds. Monthly data points to uptick in Q3 inflation. RBA rate cut pricing may be pared back. Global Trends A combination of factors underpinned risk sentiment at the end of last week and in this morning’s early Asian trade. US and...

• Mixed signals. Sanctions on Russian producers boosted oil prices. Limited spillover into other markets. Equities rose. AUD outperformed overnight.• US inflation. US CPI due tonight. US government shutdown delayed it. Diverging ‘goods’ & ‘services’ price trends at play. Data may generate USD vol. Global Trends Geopolitical developments generated a little volatility across a few markets overnight, though risk assets are generally firmer. US sanctions on some of Russia’s largest oil producers due to the lack of commitment to end the Ukraine war saw oil prices rise ~5%. That said, at ~$66/brl brent crude is still tracking below its 1-year...