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JPY

US payrolls disappoint, easing upward pressure on yields and the dollar

The US job creation engine decelerated sharply in September, adding to market bets on a short pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign in October. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 29,000 jobs were added in the month—representing an undershoot relative to the 90,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 60,000 positions, bringing the three-month average pace of job creation down to 51,000, from 71,000 ahead of the update. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.2% percent from 4.1% in August, and average hourly earnings climbed just 0.1% month-over-month, slowing from the 0.3%...

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Bond market signals

• Bond yields. Bonds still in the driver’s seat. Worries about government debt widen spreads across Europe. EUR lower, USD higher. AUD still on backfoot.• Data pulse. US ISM in ‘expansionary’ territory. Eurozone CPI & US jobs report due tonight. More volatility in interest rate expectations & FX likely. Global Trends Gyrations in global bond markets continue to be front of mind for investors. Bond yields were volatile overnight and this flowed through to other asset classes. The combination of inflation pressures (brent crude rose ~5.2% to US$103/brl), central bank rate hike expectations, greater government bond supply due to high/rising...

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Pressure points

• Shaky markets. Long end US bond yields continue to rise. US equities slip back again. USD firmer. AUD & NZD on backfoot. AUD at late-July levels.• Macro pulse. Expectations for a back-to-back RBA hike trimmed. But risk remains. US ISM & jobs report in focus over the next few days. Global Trends Underlying risk sentiment remains shaky with the upswing in long end bond yields still front of mind for investors. US equities failed to hold on to modest early session gains generated by downward revisions to the US PCE deflator (the US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) and a...

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Dollar powers higher as rate differentials widen

Good morning. The dollar is climbing, supported by high oil prices and Treasury yields near their highest levels since 2007. Crude benchmarks are giving back some of their gains as Saudi Arabia ramps up flows through its repaired East-West pipeline, but Brent is still trading around $105 a barrel as talks to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz show no signs of progress. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding around 5.21% after briefly touching 5.27% in yesterday’s session. Widening rate differentials are dominating currency markets, lifting the dollar against all its major counterparts and wrong-footing...

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RBA: once more, with feeling

The RBA has acted on its ‘hawkish’ comments and announced another 25bp interest rate hike at today’s meeting. After delivering a rapid-fire recalibration in rates earlier in the year and then being on hold since May, the nervousness of RBA officials about inflation, coupled with domestic data related to prices, and another wave of upward pressure from global forces meant today’s move was anticipated. Although the ‘unanimous’ Board vote was a bit of a surprise. According to the RBA “inflation remains elevated”, some of the “upside risks flagged in August are materializing”, and policymakers remain focused on “ensuring that high...

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