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JPY

25 Feb 2026

AUD outperforms

• AUD strength. Positive sentiment & firmer inflation have supported the AUD. This & JPY weakness have propelled AUD/JPY to a multi-decade high.• Data flow. US producer price inflation due later this week. Looking ahead, AU GDP, as well as the US ISMs, retail sales, & jobs report are out next week. Global Trends There was an upbeat tone overnight with limited fresh economic newsflow coming out over the past 24hrs. US and European equities rose. The US S&P500 (+0.8%) is within striking distance of record highs. A solid earnings update from tech heavyweight Nvidia after the US market close...

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25 Feb 2026

Markets stabilise as State of the Union address proves uneventful

Financial markets are becalmed after US president Donald Trump stuck to the script in his State of the Union address last night, avoiding any major policy announcements and striking a more measured tone on Iran than some investors had feared. The dollar is almost unchanged relative to the afternoon fix, benchmark Treasury yields are edging higher, and equity markets look set to extend yesterday’s recovery into a second session. Measures of implied volatility are tracking lower, with the VIX index—Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—falling back below the 20 threshold that typically signals a sense of alarm among market participants. The president...

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24 Feb 2026

Dollar resumes its climb against still-uncertain backdrop

Good morning. The dollar is advancing against most of its major counterparts and measures of implied currency volatility are tracking near historic norms as foreign exchange traders downplay tariff risks and shrug off signs of a shift in investor sentiment around the US technology sector. US Customs began collecting a 10-percent tariff on goods not covered by exemptions this morning—below the 15 percent threatened by President Trump in a weekend social media post. The White House reportedly remains committed to the higher levy, which would raise import costs on products from a number of key trading partners including Japan, the...

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23 Feb 2026

Dollar softens as policy uncertainty climbs

Equity markets are lower and the dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts after the US cycled through four different tariff frameworks between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon, underscoring the policy uncertainty facing the world’s largest economy. After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, he moved to replace the measures with a flat-rate 10 percent levy on all US imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which he then raised to 15 percent on Saturday. The new tariff, which is set to take effect tomorrow and...

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22 Feb 2026

Tariff Whiplash

• US tariffs. US Supreme Court rules against Pres. Trump. US tariffs being rejigged. USD softer. AUD & NZD a little firmer. AUD still near multi-year peak.• Macro trends. Over medium-term reworking tariff policies may be US growth & USD supportive. This week AU inflation data due. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks. Global Trends US tariff developments were in focus on Friday and the weekend. The US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The 6-3 decision was somewhat anticipated given President Trump’s move to bypass Congress (which has control over...

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