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JPY

11 Feb 2026

AUD outperformance

• US data. US jobs report supported sentiment. This & ‘hawkish’ comments by RBA’s Hauser helped AUD outperform. AUD at levels last traded in Feb ’23.• Rate repricing. Markets factoring in another RBA hike by August. Relative interest rates are AUD supportive. But has it moved up too fast? Global Trends There was a more positive tone across markets overnight with better-than-expected US jobs data allaying fears about the state of the economy and supporting sentiment. While US equities retraced their initial positive reaction the S&P500 still recorded a modest gain (+0.1%). US bond yields rose with the larger jump...

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11 Feb 2026

Upside payrolls surprise fuels dollar rally

After slowing sharply over the last year, the US job creation engine showed signs of accelerating last month, frustrating market expectations for a rapid easing cycle from the Federal Reserve, and allaying fears of a dramatic slowdown in consumer spending. According to delayed data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 130,000 jobs were added in January—topping the 68,000-position consensus forecast—while the unemployment rate slid to a rounded 4.3 percent from 4.4 percent previously. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 percent month-over-month, jumping from the 0.1-percent pace set in the prior month, and rising 3.7percent in year-over-year terms. Revisions muddied...

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09 Feb 2026

Political developments roil currency markets

Treasury yields are climbing and the dollar is under pressure after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators have instructed the country’s commercial banks to cut their holdings of American government debt, noting threats posed by “concentration risks and market volatility”. According to the report, officials verbally advised financial institutions to reduce new purchases and scale down existing positions in recent weeks. Benchmark ten-year yields are up five basis points, and the trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percent. The policy shift is less dramatic than the headline suggests—implying that the kneejerk market reaction should fade—but is important nonetheless. Even when...

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08 Feb 2026

Risk Reversal

• Risk rebound. Strong recovery in US equities. USD lost ground. Backdrop pushed NZD & AUD higher. JPY still under pressure post weekend elections.• Data flow. RBA Deputy Gov speaks (Weds). US retail sales (Tues night), jobs report (Weds night), & CPI (Fri night) due. Several Fed members also speak. Global Trends There was a turnaround in market sentiment at the end of last week with cyclical assets (i.e. equities and copper) and growth linked currencies such as the AUD and NZD posting solid gains on Friday. After a few soft sessions related to concerns about AI disruption and the...

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06 Feb 2026

Investors cautiously step into market wreckage seeking bargains

After several sessions of violent, whiplash price action in precious metals, cryptocurrencies and high-beta technology stocks, investors are hesitantly stepping back in this morning, driving a mean-reversion process across asset classes. The US dollar—which enjoyed a brief, and increasingly-unusual bout of safe-haven support earlier in the week—is retreating against most of its major peers, while Treasury yields are drifting lower and equity futures are pointing to a partial clawback of yesterday’s losses. The pattern of returns over the last week suggests that the recent market turbulence reflects narrative exhaustion rather than a decisive shift in macro fundamentals. Although thousands of...

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