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JPY

Tariff Celebration Proves Short-Lived

Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs – but the relief rally is fading in the face of data that suggests the economy is losing momentum. North American equity indices are still marching toward solid gains – partially supported by last night’s positive earnings release from artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp. – and implied volatility expectations are declining, but ten-year Treasury yields are falling, and the dollar is conceding territory as the session...

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Rally Fades As Uncertainties Remain

Traders are trimming risk after yesterday’s relief rally took market valuations a little too far. A rebound across Treasuries, equity indices, and the US dollar – initially driven by the Trump administration’s rapid retreat from tariff threats against the European Union and hints of a possible shift in Japan’s bond issuance strategy – is retracing against a still-uncertain policy backdrop. In currency markets, the greenback’s gains are fading, while the Canadian dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen are giving back some of their losses. Long-dated government bond yields are inching higher in most developed economies after another bout of...

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Tumult Fades As Intense Trading Week Begins

Measures of risk appetite are improving this morning amid signs of an easing in last week’s bond market tantrum, and following a brief escalation in cross-Atlantic trade tensions. Equity markets are setting up for a near-1-percent advance at the open, Treasury yields are inching lower across the long end of the curve, and the dollar is strengthening as investors brace for a heavy slate of data releases in the coming days. Bonds are rallying across the advanced economies on hints that Japanese authorities could take action to stem upward pressure on long-term yields. According to several media reports, the Ministry...

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Tariff sabre rattling

• Tariff news. Threats of increased US tariffs on the EU rattled nerves on Friday. US President Trump pushed out the deadline this morning.• FX trends. US growth challenges & policy uncertainty weighs on USD. AUD & NZD edge higher. AUD & NZD also outperform on the crosses.• Event Radar. RBNZ expected to cut rates (Weds). AU monthly CPI due (Weds). US PCE deflator released (Fri). Several US Fed members speaking. Global Trends Market nerves were shaken on Friday during the US trading session after President Trump rattled the ‘Tariff Sabre’ once again. The EU and Apple were in President...

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Yields Push Higher as Debt Worries Intensify

Treasury markets are extending their losses this morning on worries that funding strains could reach unsustainable levels after the House of Representatives passed President Donald Trump’s broad-reaching tax-cut bill. By a 215-to-214 margin, the lower chamber passed what Trump has called his “one, big, beautiful” bill early this morning, with two Republicans and all Democrats voting against it. The 30-year Treasury yield is closing on the 5.15-percent threshold, nearing levels only temporarily breached during the Fed-induced selloff in 2023, and previously touched in 2007. The dollar giving back some of its overnight gains, and most of its major counterparts are...

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