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GBP

Dollar Licks Its Wounds As Inflation Accelerates Slightly in Canada

The dollar is advancing incrementally against its major rivals this morning after suffering extensive losses in the last two weeks on a softening in US economic data and a reversal in bets on Donald Trump’s trade plans. A disappointing payrolls report, several noisy but ultimately calming inflation prints, evidence of a slowing in consumer spending, and a less-aggressive-than-feared reciprocal tariff announcement on Thursday helped bring yields down in the last week and a half, and—despite a small advance overnight—the greenback is now down roughly three quarters of a percentage point in trade-weighted terms. Canadian headline and core inflation measures accelerated...

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USD on the backfoot

• US macro. Weak US retail sales weighed on bond yields & the USD on Friday. AUD & NZD extend respective rebounds. US holiday today.• Central banks. Markets expecting another 50bp RBNZ rate cut with a 25bp move by the RBA anticipated. Have easing cycles already been priced in?• Event Radar. In addition to the RBA (Tues) & RBNZ (Weds), AU jobs report also due (Thurs). Global PMIs scheduled (Fri). US Fed members speaking. Global Trends US economic data was the market driver on Friday night with no fresh geopolitical or tariff-related headlines coming through which moved the dial. US...

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Dollar Retreats as ‘Tariff Exhaustion’ Kicks In, and Retail Sales Slump

The dollar is trading near a two-month low this morning after Donald Trump delivered a long-threatened “reciprocal” tariff plan that was distinctly short on tradeable detail. In an extensively-teased announcement from the Oval Office, the president signed a memo directing federal agencies to investigate raising import taxes on shipments from countries with “unfair” economic barriers in place against US exports—things like tariffs, regulations, subsidies, manipulated exchange rates, and domestic value-added taxes—but stopped short of imposing any deadlines or naming the product categories and countries that could be targeted. “On trade, I have decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will...

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Upbeat end to the week

• Positive vibes. Equities rise, yields fall. USD loses ground. Favourable US PPI & geopolitical/tariff news support sentiment. AUD & NZD lift.• Tariff news. ‘Reciprocal’ US tariffs in the pipeline. Likely to be formally announced by 1 April. Markets breathe a short-term sigh of relief.• Macro events. US retail sales due tonight. Next week the RBA & RBNZ meet. Rate cuts expected by both, though the RBNZ should be more aggressive. Global Trends There were a few more pockets of headline-driven volatility overnight. But on balance, risk sentiment has been positive with favourable data and geopolitical developments coming through. Equities...

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Sticky Producer Price Inflation Leaves Markets Largely Unmoved

Input price inflation rose at faster pace than anticipated in the United States last month, but details under the hood indicated a moderation in some services categories, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator could slow in month-over-month terms when it is reported next week. Producer prices for final demand climbed 0.4 percent in January relative to the prior month, topping forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase, and rising 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, but airline fares and medical care costs declined, putting pressure on the key components that feed through into the core personal consumption expenditures index....

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