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GBP

01 Nov 2023

US bond yields tumble

• US yields fall. No change from the US Fed, but the tone was ‘cautious’. This, softer US data, & lower debt issuance projections weighed on US yields.• Positive sentiment. The moves in US rates helped support equity markets & cyclical currencies like the AUD. The AUD outperformed over the past 24hrs.• Yield spreads. The RBA is expected to hike rates next week & further steps are possible. This shift has seen yield spreads move in favour of a higher AUD. A sizeable drop in US bond yields was the dominating market development overnight. US yields fell by 14-19bps across...

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30 Oct 2023

China PMIs & BoJ in focus

• Positive tone. Equities rose & oil prices extended their slide. Markets are taking the Middle East developments in their stride. The USD also softened.• AUD rebound. Firmer equities & a positive AU retail sales report which reinforced RBA rate hike expectations has helped the AUD recover some lost ground.• Asian focus. Today attention will be on the China PMIs & the BoJ decision. Another BoJ tweak could support the weak JPY, which in turn weighs on the USD. Markets have started the week on a more positive footing. Investors appear to be taking the Middle East developments in their...

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30 Oct 2023

It’s quiet. Too quiet.

It may be the most wonderful time of the fear, but foreign exchange markets remain remarkably calm. 1-month implied volatility – a measure of expected swings in exchange rates – in G7 currency pairs is holding almost a full standard deviation below post-2000 norms, and remains well below comparable indicators in other asset classes. We doubt this can be sustained as geopolitical risks simmer, outcomes diverge across the major economic blocs, and stress grows on the global financial system. We’d try to remind market participants of the ghosts of previous foreign exchange shocks – major moves tend to occur just...

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30 Oct 2023

Traders exit safe havens ahead of busy week

Markets are unwinding risk haven trades this morning, following a pattern established over the last several weekends, with Gaza-related geopolitical exposures forcing traders to square positions before each Friday close, only to reopen them each Monday. With Israeli forces advancing more cautiously than had been feared, oil prices are down, gold is coming under selling pressure, and equity futures are edging higher. The dollar is broadly softening against its major counterparts – including the Canadian dollar – but ten-year Treasury yields are again pushing past the 4.85-percent mark as investors brace for a tumultuous week in fixed income markets. The...

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26 Oct 2023

Push & pull forces

• Market vol. Equities lower as earnings disappoint. US yields reverse despite robust US GDP as inflation pressures ease. Oil lower in spite of Middle East tensions.• USD trends. Lower yields took some of the heat out of the USD. US economic strength boosted the USD recently. But was Q3 as good as it gets?• AUD pulse. AUD traded in a ~2% range this week. Q3 CPI supports the case for another RBA hike. Yield spreads shifting in favour of a higher AUD. Financial market gyrations are continuing, though overnight not all asset classes reacted uniformly. The slide in equities...

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