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GBP

Dollar Momentum Fades As Rate Cuts Return

The dollar is beginning the new week on a defensive footing after Friday’s non-farm payrolls print helped resuscitate hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are flat, North American equity bourses are pointing to a supportive open, and currency markets are seeing a second day of broad-based risk-taking. The April jobs report showed labour market conditions easing, but remaining extremely tight. Employers added 175,000 positions, down from an upwardly-revised 315,000-job print in the prior month. The unemployment rate rose an almost indiscernible 0.03 percent, climbing from 3.83 to 3.86 percent, and marking the 27th consecutive month below...

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Softer US data pressures the USD

• Positive vibes. A weaker US jobs report & ISM services data exerted more pressure on US yields & the USD. The AUD’s revival continued.• RBA meeting. Australian interest rate pricing has adjusted higher. But has it gone too far? The RBA may not match ‘hawkish’ market expectations.• Event radar. Locally the RBA (Tues) is the main event. Offshore, the Bank of England meets. In the US several Fed members are due to speak. The positive market mood stemming from the less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting continued on Friday. Softer US jobs and services ISM data supported the...

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Will the US labour market crack?

• Post Fed. US yields & the USD have remained on the backfoot after the Fed wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. JPY rebound also weighed on the USD.• US jobs. AUD revival continued. US jobs in focus tonight. Reaction likely to be binary. Weaker (stronger) result set to be AUD positive (negative).• RBA looming. RBA next Tuesday. We think the Board could discuss the merits of another hike. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. The washout across markets from yesterday’s less ‘hawkish’ than feared US Fed meeting has continued. Bond yields in Europe and the US have fallen further with...

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Higher for longer Fed already priced in

• Expectations matter. US Fed failed to live up to the markets “hawkish” thinking. Rates set to stay higher for longer, but this was already priced.• Yields adjust. Fed Chair Powell doesn’t see more hikes. US yields slipped back & the USD softened. AUD recovered ~1/2 of yesterday’s fall.• JPY swings. Another sharp jump in the JPY caught the markets eye after the Fed. US jobs report (Friday night) the next major market event. The US Fed meeting was in focus this morning. As per our thoughts outlined over the past week the Fed failed to live up to very...

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Soaring US Yields Set Stage for Fed’s ‘Hawkish Hold’

The dollar is trading near a five-month high after data showed US wage growth accelerating, further reducing market odds on rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage growth saw the Employment Cost Index accelerate to the fastest pace in a year, adding to last week’s inflation data in forcing markets to question whether the central bank will be able to lower interest rates from what it currently sees as restrictive levels. Two-year Treasury yields are holding above the 5 percent threshold and traders are now pricing in just a single rate cut in...

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