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GBP

09 Mar 2025

EUR upswing continues

• US jobs. Lukewarm US jobs report didn’t stir the market pot. US equities rose, as did bond yields. EUR extended its upswing. AUD drifted back.• EUR strength. Prospect of more EU fiscal spending is supporting the EUR. AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP down near multi-year lows. Is too much priced in?• Event Radar. US CPI (Weds) due. Bank of Canada (Weds night) expected to cut rates again. News about US tariffs & EU fiscal spending also likely. Global Trends After a volatile spell, particularly in European assets, last week ended without any new significant market ructions. The monthly US jobs report...

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07 Mar 2025

Trade War Nerves Offset Stale Jobs Reports

Markets have joined economists in thinking that trade wars really aren’t good, or easy to win. After weeks of dizzying changes in US tariff policies, the S&P 500 is down 7 percent from all-time highs, Treasury yields have fallen sharply, and the dollar is down against all of its major counterparts—despite this morning’s relatively-stable non-farm payrolls report. In the latest development, Donald Trump yesterday said he would pause tariffs on goods that comply with the North American free trade pact negotiated during his first tour in office—just two days after he imposed near-universal 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico....

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06 Mar 2025

Policy uncertainty

• Mixed markets. US equities fell. ECB cut rates but gave off ‘hawkish’ vibes. EUR holds onto recent gains. AUD up near its 4-month average.• Push/pull. US tariff news still evolving. Pres. Trump announced temporary exemptions on some imports from Mexico & Canada. The art of the deal?• US jobs. Monthly US jobs report due tonight. US Fed Chair Powell also speaks on the outlook. These events could spark more USD volatility. Global Trends Markets continue to be whipped around by geopolitical and economic uncertainty. In the US, tariff news is still evolving. US President Trump announced that goods from...

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04 Mar 2025

EU on the defensive

• EU spending. Signals about more EU defence spending boosted the EUR. This has weighed on the USD & indirectly given the AUD some support.• Tariffs. US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, & China kicked off. China & Canada announced retaliatory measures. Pres. Trump speaks today.• AU data. Q4 GDP due today. Partial indicators suggest growth momentum improved. RBA easing cycle to be slow & limited. China’s NPC also starts. Global Trends Geopolitical developments continue to push and pull markets. Global equity market losses extended overnight, with larger falls coming through in Europe compared to the US (EuroStoxx600 -2.1%...

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03 Mar 2025

Tariffs & economic risks

• US risks. ISM manufacturing index underwhelmed. Pres. Trump reiterated that tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China kick in tomorrow.• Risk sentiment. Backdrop weighed on US yields & equities. AUD/USD holding its ground, but AUD underperformed the EUR, GBP, & JPY.• Volatility. More bursts of market volatility likely. Several global & domestic risk events are scheduled over the rest of this week. Global Trends Diverging regional performance across markets overnight. In Europe, efforts to forge a Ukraine/Russia peace plan and the prospect of greater regional defence spending supported equities (particularly the aerospace and defence sector), pushed up bond...

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