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GBP

14 Jun 2024

Euro Crisis Flashbacks Hit Markets

Traders are in sell-first, ask-questions-later mode and the euro is coming under sustained pressure as negative rhetoric surrounding the upcoming French election heats up. The dollar and yen are climbing on safe-haven demand, Treasury yields are inching lower, and North American equity futures are looking subdued ahead of what could evolve into a risk-off day in broader financial markets. Franco-German bond spreads are blowing out after French finance minister Bruno le Maire warned a victory for left wing parties in the upcoming snap election could see the country exiting the European Union, triggering “economic collapse” and a “guaranteed downgrade” from...

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13 Jun 2024

European political nerves

• European politics. Concerns about the French elections has exerted pressure on the EUR. This helped push AUD/EUR higher.• US data. US PPI undershot forecasts. Inflation tide may be turning. US yields fell, but European issues supported the USD. AUD/USD drifted back.• AU jobs. May jobs report better than expected. At 4% unemployment is still low. Conditions for an RBA interest rate cut still look some time away. US economic and European political crosscurrents have pushed and pulled markets overnight. Data wise, following on from the lower than expected US CPI report US Producer Prices also undershot forecasts. Importantly, the...

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13 Jun 2024

Market Calm Returns

Financial markets are stabilising this morning as investors process the implications of yesterday’s soft US inflation print and more hawkish-than-expected Fed decision. The dollar is moving sideways along with the pound and euro, Treasury yields are slipping, and North American equity futures are setting up for a mixed trading day. The May inflation report was unquestionably positive, consistent with rate cuts beginning in the autumn months. Headline and core consumer price indices increased by less than expected, with declining energy prices putting downward pressure on the all-items measure while a sharp decline in car insurance premiums offset still-stubborn shelter costs....

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12 Jun 2024

US inflation vs the Fed

• Data vs the Fed. Softer US inflation overpowered a ‘higher for longer’ Fed message. US yields fell, equities rose, & the USD weakened.• Stale forecasts? Fed assuming only 1 cut this year. Fed has moved to match the market. But Chair Powell noted ‘most’ didn’t tweak forecasts after the CPI.• AUD outperformance. Backdrop helped the AUD outperform. AU jobs report today. Could the ‘labour force lottery’ spring another surprise? US events generated a burst of market friendly volatility overnight with softer than predicted CPI inflation overpowering a more cautious ‘higher for longer’ message from the Federal Reserve. While there...

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11 Jun 2024

US CPI & Fed in focus

• Data & politics. European political concerns have weighed on the EUR. This & positive US jobs data at the end of last week have supported the USD.• US events. US CPI & Fed meeting in focus tonight. US core inflation forecast to slow & while the Fed should project few cuts this may already be priced in.• AUD cross-currents. European issues have boosted AUD/EUR. Positive US CPI signs & the Fed failing to exceed ‘hawkish’ expectations may help AUD. Economic and political developments in the US and Europe have shaken up markets over the past few sessions. The better-than-expected...

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