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GBP

16 Jul 2024

“Trump Bump” Fades

Currency markets are stabilising as Sunday’s rally in the dollar reverses, suggesting that the weekend’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump has not impacted the near-term investment outlook in any meaningful way. The greenback is holding steady against a weakening safe-haven yen as two- and ten-year Treasury yields slip from yesterday’s highs, the pound and Canadian dollar are flat, and the Mexican peso is clawing its way higher. With the exception of the loonie, every major currency is up against the dollar on a five-day basis. In equity markets, volatility expectations remain elevated around the November election date, but Donald Trump’s...

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15 Jul 2024

Macro vs politics

• Trump trades. US long end yields, equities, & the USD tick up. Weekend developments have bolstered expectations Trump might be re-elected.• Fed pricing. US data is supporting Fed rate cut bets. Last week US CPI underwhelmed. The divergence with the RBA is underpinning the AUD.• Event Radar. US retail sales due tonight. ECB meets on Thursday night. Q2 NZ CPI (Weds) & the Australian jobs report (Thurs) also on the schedule. Economic trends butted up against geopolitical developments at the start of the new week. These cross-currents look set to be in place for some time. After losing more...

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15 Jul 2024

Trump Assassination Attempt Bolsters Dollar

The dollar has snapped a three-day losing streak and global markets are retracing their steps after the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania over the weekend. Treasury yields are up, equity futures are heading toward a positive open, oil prices are up, and the Mexican peso is down a little over 1 percent as we go to print. Most observers believe that the attempt – bolstered by a dramatic photo of a bloodied Trump triumphantly holding his fist aloft – will translate into a bump in the polls, making it more likely that...

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12 Jul 2024

Risk Appetite Surges After Soft Inflation Data

The dollar is stabilising this morning, but is still headed for a weekly loss after yesterday’s US consumer price index report showed inflation easing even more than markets had expected, triggering a stampede into risk-sensitive assets. Two- and ten-year yields are inching higher after falling to their lowest since March, equity futures are setting up for a more positive open after experiencing a violent sectoral rotation – the Russell 2000 small-cap index advanced by the most against the Nasdaq 100 since November 2020 – and currency markets are entering a consolidative phase. The pound and euro are both adding to...

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11 Jul 2024

Dollar Retreats Ahead of Inflation Print

Yields are softening and the dollar is dropping ahead of US inflation numbers that could bolster the case for policy easing from the Federal Reserve. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback is holding near a one-month low as most of its rivals advance. Data out in less than half an hour is expected to show underlying US consumer prices rising at the slowest two-month pace since last summer, reinforcing market confidence in a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ core inflation measure is seen climbing just 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, with goods...

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