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GBP

21 Jul 2024

Biden drops out

• US politics. Pres. Biden drops out of the race. Will the narrower gap between Harris & Trump in betting odds see traders unwind recent market moves?• AUD vol. AUD under pressure last week. But we think it is looking a bit undervalued given the relative macro & interest rate dynamics.• Event radar. Global PMIs due (Weds). US GDP (Thurs) & PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Bank of Canada meets (Weds), so does the MAS (Fri). The pressure on cyclical assets continued at the end of last week with the pull-back in equities and industrial commodities extending. The US S&P500...

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18 Jul 2024

Political noise

• Shaky sentiment. US equities dip for the second day. Base metals lower. USD a little firmer. AUD/USD slips back but AUD holding up on the crosses.• Global macro. ECB holds steady. September meeting is ‘wide open’. Incoming data will be key. UK wages cool. EUR & GBP lose a bit of ground.• AU jobs. Solid jobs report. Labour demand remains positive. Unemployment still low. RBA expectations diverging from other central banks. A few wobbles in risk sentiment over the past couple of sessions. US equities fell for the second straight day (S&P500 -0.8%), base metal prices declined (copper -3.3%),...

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18 Jul 2024

ECB Holds, Signals Patience on Rate Cuts

Global currency markets are stabilising and the euro remains essentially unmoved after the European Central Bank left its main policy settings unchanged while avoiding telegraphing a move in September. In a mostly unmodified statement, officials said “domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above target well into next year,” while acknowledging that most measures of underlying price pressures “were either stable or edged down in June”. Potentially foreshadowing comments from President Lagarde during the press conference, policymakers inserted a sentence warning market participants against inferring signals about the future direction...

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17 Jul 2024

Trump Comments Weigh on Dollar

The dollar is beating a swift retreat this morning after Bloomberg Businessweek published a late-June interview in which Donald Trump took aim at overvaluation in the currency, suggesting that he might take policy actions to depress it against the yuan and yen. The renminbi is inching higher, but the Japanese yen is up more than a full percentage point against the greenback, and most other majors are strengthening in relative terms. This comes after yesterday’s June retail sales report provided another reminder of the golden rule in global economics: never, ever bet against the American consumer. So-called “control group” receipts...

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16 Jul 2024

Mixed messages

• Mixed markets. S&P500 & gold hit record highs. Bond yields slipped back, while the USD index consolidated. AUD gave back a bit of ground.• US data. US retail sales better than expected in June. But the underlying trend still shows sluggish momentum. Fed rate cuts priced in from September.• NZ CPI. NZ headline inflation slowed in Q2. The door to RBNZ rate cuts continues to open. Australian jobs report released tomorrow. Mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities continued to power ahead with the S&P500 (+0.6%) hitting another record. The S&P500 is now up ~24% compared to a year...

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