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GBP

25 Aug 2024

The time has come

• Dovish Powell. US Fed Chair gave strong signals the start of the rate cutting cycle is approaching. Focus now on downside labour market risks.• Market jolt. Equities & commodities jumped, bond yields & the USD declined. AUD at the top of its 7-month range. EUR highest since mid-2023.• Event radar. Locally, July CPI (Weds), CAPEX (Thurs), & retail sales (Fri) are due. Offshore, Eurozone inflation & US PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Markets ended last week on a positive note with the more dovish than anticipated message from US Fed Chair Powell boosting risk sentiment (see below). US equities...

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23 Aug 2024

Markets Wait to Exhale

Global risk appetite is improving, but trading liquidity remains thin ahead of this morning’s speech from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The dollar is retreating, the pound and euro are inching higher, Treasury yields are flat, and equity futures are pointing to gains at the North American open. Odds on a half-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting have fallen sharply from the early-August peak, but markets nonetheless expect Powell to deliver a distinctly dovish outlook, setting the stage for at least one outsized move in the autumn months by emphasising downside...

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22 Aug 2024

Reversal of fortune

• Market turn. US equities dipped, while bond yields & the USD rose. The reversal has taken some of the heat out of the AUD.• Data pulse. Solid US data & ‘cautious’ comments from Fed officials about the looming rate cut cycle underpinned the moves.• Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. A further push back on aggressive rate cut bets could see the USD’s revival extend. A reversal of fortune in markets over the past 24hrs. US equities dipped (S&P500 -0.9%), with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (-1.7%). US bond yields have risen by ~5-7bps across the curve with the...

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22 Aug 2024

Trading Ranges Shrink As Jackson Hole Beckons

A sense of cautious optimism is settling over global markets this morning after payroll revisions and Federal Reserve minutes helped recalibrate expectations for the central bank’s policy actions this autumn. Trading ranges are narrowing across fixed-income, equity, and foreign exchange markets, with most major currency pairs moving sideways as participants avoid taking directional positions ahead of tomorrow’s appearance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday said the number of jobs created in the year through March was significantly less than initially believed. Revisions subtracted 818,000 jobs from total payrolls over...

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21 Aug 2024

Currency Markets Run Out of Momentum in Countdown to Jackson Hole

A three-week decline in the dollar appears to be nearing exhaustion this morning, suggesting that traders are growing sceptical of Jerome Powell’s willingness to “out-dove” market expectations in Friday’s appearance at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. The most widely-tracked dollar index, the DXY, is holding steady after falling in the last three sessions, Treasury yields are moving sideways, and North American equity markets are setting up for a mixed open. We think the Federal Reserve chair could double down on July’s post-decision messaging on Friday, suggesting that it will “soon” be appropriate to begin easing policy. He might also acknowledge...

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