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GBP

03 Sep 2024

Risk aversion returns

• Risk off. Growth worries have weighed on cyclical assets. US equities fell, as did base metal prices. Bond yields declined. USD & JPY stronger.• AUD weaker. Backdrop has exerted downward pressure on the AUD. There could be more to come if the US jobs data generates USD support.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released today. Another weak quarter of growth likely. But level of demand is still high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. It has been a negative start to September with a bout of risk aversion rippling through markets overnight as the US returned from its long weekend. Some...

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03 Sep 2024

Investors Batten the Hatches Ahead of a Stormy September

The dollar is blowing into September with a full head of steam as traders brace for what could prove to be this year’s most pivotal economic data release: Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report. Two-year Treasury yields are edging higher, stock market futures are softening, and the greenback is climbing against most of its major counterparts, with rallies in the euro and pound showing clear signs of exhaustion. Today’s update from the Institute for Supply Management could move markets. The Institute’s manufacturing purchasing manager index is expected to show the factory sector remaining firmly in contractionary territory, with new orders continuing...

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02 Sep 2024

Holding steady

• US holiday. Quiet start to the week with the US on holiday. European yields ticked up, while in FX the AUD has been a relative outperformer.• Iron ore. Sluggish China PMI data has weighed on iron ore. But limited AUD spillover, inline with the low correlation with prices over recent years.• US data. Release calendar heats up with US ISM out tonight. Various jobs metrics due the next few days. Positive data could give the USD a boost. With US markets closed for the Labour Day holiday swings across the major asset classes have been minimal at the start...

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01 Sep 2024

Will US payrolls rebound?

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields nudged up. US holiday tonight but there is plenty of important data on the horizon.• USD bounce. Higher US yields generated a bit of USD support. AUD eased. Markets still look to be pricing in too much US Fed easing, in our view.• Event radar. Locally, Q2 GDP & a speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. Offshore, US jobs data due with non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 (+1%) now fractionally under its record high. The early-August panic volatility has faded...

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28 Aug 2024

Swings & roundabouts

• Mixed markets. US equities dip with Nvidia lower in after hours trading. USD a touch firmer. AUD still hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• AU inflation. Headline CPI slows, but not as much as predicted. Underlying inflation still sticky. RBA unlikely to ‘pivot’ like the US Fed for some time.• Global data. US weekly jobless claims & German inflation due tonight. Tomorrow, Eurozone CPI & the US PCE deflator are released. Light news and data flow has kept most major asset classes range-bound over the past 24hrs. US equities slipped back ahead of the much-anticipated results update...

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