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GBP

Will US payrolls rebound?

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields nudged up. US holiday tonight but there is plenty of important data on the horizon.• USD bounce. Higher US yields generated a bit of USD support. AUD eased. Markets still look to be pricing in too much US Fed easing, in our view.• Event radar. Locally, Q2 GDP & a speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. Offshore, US jobs data due with non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 (+1%) now fractionally under its record high. The early-August panic volatility has faded...

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Swings & roundabouts

• Mixed markets. US equities dip with Nvidia lower in after hours trading. USD a touch firmer. AUD still hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• AU inflation. Headline CPI slows, but not as much as predicted. Underlying inflation still sticky. RBA unlikely to ‘pivot’ like the US Fed for some time.• Global data. US weekly jobless claims & German inflation due tonight. Tomorrow, Eurozone CPI & the US PCE deflator are released. Light news and data flow has kept most major asset classes range-bound over the past 24hrs. US equities slipped back ahead of the much-anticipated results update...

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Markets Mark Time as Nvidia Earnings Loom

As the hours tick down to this week’s key event risk – Nvidia’s latest earnings release – currency traders are moving to the sidelines and bidding up the greenback. The dollar is climbing against its major rivals, Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are holding firm. The Mexican peso is the clear outperformer on the currency league tables this morning, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses as fears of a diplomatic crisis abate. The exchange rate dropped in yesterday’s session after a constitutional committee approved Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s plan to remove checks and balances in the country’s...

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Hanging in there

• Range bound. Limited moves across most markets. News flow has been light. USD drifted lower. AUD & NZD towards the top of their respective ranges.• Iron ore. The revival has continued. Iron ore prices now over 11% above mid-August lows on the back of signs oversupply risks are easing.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI due today. A lot of uncertainty because of electricity subsidies. A large drop in headline inflation could drag on the AUD. ‘Steady as she goes’ over the past 24hrs with consolidation the main theme across most major markets. News flow has been light. The major European...

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Currencies Lose Momentum as Caution Sets In

The euro, pound, and yen are essentially flat against the dollar this morning as month end flows begin to dominate the foreign exchange landscape, with market participants generally inclined to cut leverage ahead of what could be an extremely dangerous September. Data releases continue to paint a mixed picture of fundamental developments in the US economy. Yesterday’s July durable goods report beat expectations on the headline level, but proved disappointing on closer examination. Overall orders climbed 9.9 percent from the prior month, but this was largely due to a jump in aircraft orders, which rose almost $23.4 billion after falling...

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