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Dollar Climbs on Trump Tariff Threats

The dollar is trading near a two-month high after Donald Trump doubled down on his trade threats in a widely-watched interview with Bloomberg News. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff’,” he said, telling interviewer John Micklethwait – formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist – “It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong.” The Mexican peso dropped sharply as Trump attacked the friend-shoring investment narrative, suggesting that Chinese manufacturers were trying to navigate around US trade protections by...

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Dollar Treads Water as Oil Prices Slump

The dollar is edging lower this morning as geopolitical concerns ebb, but continues to hold gains achieved over the first two weeks of October, remaining higher against all of its major counterparts excepting the safe-have Swiss franc. Easing expectations fell further in yesterday’s session when Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller clearly indicated a preference for cutting rates in smaller-sized increments. “I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting,” he said, noting that if the current trajectory of inflation and...

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More talk than action

• Consolidation. Quiet end to last week. US S&P500 hit another record. Bond yields ticked up while the USD remained range bound.• China stimulus. More positive rhetoric but no specifics about the next wave of fiscal stimulus. But this looks to be a matter of when, not if.• Event radar. Locally, jobs figures are due (Thurs). Offshore, ECB meets, while US retail sales, NZ CPI, UK CPI, & China GDP are released this week. It was a rather subdued end to last week across markets. European and US equities ticked up with the S&P500 (+0.6%) touching yet another record high...

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Easing Hopes Unwind Further, Putting Pressure on Currency Markets

The dollar is recovering, ten-year Treasury yields are pushing higher, and risk sentiment is worsening as traders further downgrade odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, forcing investors to brace for a modest tightening in financial conditions. The Canadian dollar is surging on an unexpectedly-strong jobs report, which is also lowering expectations for an accelerated pace of monetary easing in coming months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday reported an unexpectedly-large increase in underlying inflation. The core consumer price index – which excludes food and energy costs – climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month in September, reversing a period of declines...

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Expectations matter

• Partial reversal. US equities consolidated, bond yields eased, & base metal prices rose. After a negative run AUD & NZD a bit firmer.• US inflation. Headline & core CPI a touch higher than predicted. Key underlying trends still point to a series of US Fed rate cuts over the next year.• Event radar. China holds a fiscal policy briefing tomorrow. US PPI tonight. Next week AU jobs, US retail sales, ECB meeting, & China GDP are due. A modest reversal of fortunes across markets overnight despite the latest US CPI inflation reading coming in a touch higher than predicted....

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