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GBP

Fundamentals vs flows

• Softer USD. A firmer EUR, stronger JPY, & month-end portfolio rebalancing flows exerted a bit of downward pressure on the USD.• AUD & NZD. AUD ticked up & NZD rose despite RBNZ delivering a 50bp cut & indicating more to come. AUD/NZD below model estimates.• Holiday markets. US markets closed for Thanksgiving tonight & only open for a few hours on Friday. Thinner liquidity may generate bursts of intra-day vol. Mixed fortunes across markets over the past 24hrs with the economic data and central bank comments butting up against month-end portfolio rebalancing ahead of the US Thanksgiving holidays. US...

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The ‘tariff man’ is back

• US tariffs. Markets rattled by President-elect Trump’s announcement tariffs would be imposed on Mexico, Canada & China on his first day.• USD firmer. The move supported the USD & weighed on cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD. Negative risk sentiment saw the JPY outperform.• Data flow. Today, the monthly AU CPI is due. RBNZ also expected to cut rates again with a 50bp reduction predicted by analysts. Markets were rattled yesterday after President-elect Trump fired a few shots in his post-election trade war. Via social media Trump stated that to curb the inflow of drugs and migrants he would...

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‘Tariff Man’s’ Return Rocks Currency Markets

Donald Trump’s threat to raise consumption taxes on a range of goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China is still sending shockwaves across currency markets. The dollar is up roughly a percentage point against its North American and European counterparts after the president last night said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of allowing illegal migrants and drug traffickers into the US. In a break with long-standing Republican orthodoxy – most clearly under Ronald Reagan – this would raise trade...

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US politics still in the driver’s seat

• US politics. Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick supported sentiment. US equities rose while bond yields fell. USD lost a little ground.• AUD dip. AUD bucked the trend to be back near ~$0.65. Underperformance on the crosses was a factor. We don’t think this should last.• Data flow. Limited releases today. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Australian monthly CPI also due Wednesday. Will it re-accelerate? The market tone has been a bit more upbeat at the start of the new week. News President-elect Trump has nominated experienced hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, a more orthodox choice than...

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Bessent-Driven Relief Rally Boosts Currency Markets

Financial markets are heaving a sigh of relief after president-elect Donald Trump picked Scott Bessent – a relative moderate and someone with a firm grasp of macroeconomics – to lead the Treasury Department. The hedge fund manager and Soros Fund alumni is seen as someone who might steer the incoming administration’s fiscal and trade policies in a more pragmatic direction, reducing the negative effects of an “America First” approach on other economies. The benchmark ten year Treasury yield is down six basis points from Friday’s close, equity futures are setting up for a strong open, and the dollar is down...

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