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GBP

10 Dec 2024

A repricing in policy expectations could weaken sterling in the early new year, but economic resilience points to a recovery ahead

The British pound faces a turbulent outlook in 2025, shaped by conflicting domestic and international forces: After a distinct loss of economic momentum in 2024, labour markets are softening, putting wage gains under pressure and driving inflation expectations lower. We think the Bank of England will cut rates more aggressively than markets anticipate in the near term, limiting the extent to which interest differentials can support the currency against the euro.  A period of outperformance has not been sustained.Contribution to monthly change in GDP, 3-month moving average, %January 2022 – September 2024 But the UK’s services-focused industrial structure offers some...

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09 Dec 2024

China changes its policy tune

• China bounce. Policymakers in China changed their tone when it comes to policy. Prospect of more stimulus supported assets like the AUD.• RBA focus. No rate change expected from RBA. Will it alter its guidance? A tweak could see the AUD lose some ground.• Event radar. RBA today. Later this week, ECB & BoC meet. US CPI inflation also due, & the China CEWC will be held. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets at the start of the new week with moves that flowed in the wake of Friday nights US jobs data reversing. The catalyst...

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05 Dec 2024

US jobs report in focus

• Marking time. Markets essentially in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. Easing French political concerns support EUR.• US jobs. Non-farm payrolls in focus. Reaction likely to be binary with stronger (weaker) data likely to support (weigh) on the USD.• AUD trends. AUD has clawed back some ground. US jobs report is a near-term risk event. RBA meets on Tuesday. US Fed meets the week after. With little new information to move the dial markets have essentially been in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s US jobs report. European equities ticked higher (EuroStoxx600 +0.4%) while the major...

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04 Dec 2024

Subpar growth weighs on the AUD

• Positive vibes. Equities power ahead. USD treads water. AUD underperforms. US data solid but not spectacular overnight.• AUD tumbles. Weaker than expected GDP weighs on AUD. Growth has slowed across the private sector but the level of activity is still high.• Policy impulse. RBA should hold steady next week. Upcoming US jobs report could impact market pricing for a December Fed rate cut. Global political ructions have continued but the direct market impact has been minimal. In France, as widely expected, a no-confidence vote in Parliament triggered a collapse of the government. France faces a month-end deadline to sort...

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04 Dec 2024

Markets Steady After South Korean Shock

The dollar is pushing higher, Treasury yields are steadying, and equity futures are advancing as the French government moves closer to collapse and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell prepares to deliver potentially market-moving remarks later this morning. The Korean won plunged yesterday when President Soon Suk Yeol shocked citizens by declaring martial law for the first time in 40 years, deploying the military on South Korean streets. The apparent autogolpe* attempt was quickly undone by lawmakers in an emergency vote – and the currency is now almost fully recovered – but markets have grown more uncertain about the future of...

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