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GBP

07 Jan 2025

Tariff Threat Aftershocks Leave Currency Markets Jittery

Currency markets are suffering a case of whiplash after Donald Trump yesterday denied a report saying that his aides were exploring plans to implement a narrower set of tariffs than had been promised on the campaign trail. The article in the Washington Post, which suggested that the incoming administration would impose selective rather than universal tariffs, triggered a 1-percent drop in the dollar, but was rebutted a little more than three hours later by the president-elect in a Truth Social post in which he called it “fake news”. The greenback ended the day down roughly 0.7 percent as traders adopted...

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06 Jan 2025

Potential Dilution in Trump Tariff Plans Pummels Dollar

As the curtain rises on 2025, the dollar is tumbling on a report suggesting that incoming US president Donald Trump will ultimately implement tariffs on a much narrower set of products than he had threatened on the campaign trail. According to the Washington Post, advisors to the president-elect are preparing plans to impose import taxes on goods deemed critical to national or economic security—products related to defence industries, strategically-important energy inputs and commodities, and critical medical supplies—instead of the “universal” 10-to-20-percent tariffs previously proposed. This would inflict less pain on the global economy, and reduce the risk of an inflationary...

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19 Dec 2024

Central bank divergence

• Calm down. A sense of calm returned overnight. US equities consolidated & the US yield curve steepened. USD held its ground. AUD ticked up a little.• Central banks. BoE kept rates steady but kept door open to more easing. BoJ more ‘dovish’ than expected. GBP & especially JPY underperformed.• Event radar. Japan CPI, US PCE deflator, & appearances by Fed members in focus today. Is too much ‘good news’ priced in the USD? A sense of calm has returned to markets following yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ US Fed induced volatility. US equities consolidated. Though given the size of yesterday’s falls (the...

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19 Dec 2024

“Bad Santa” Shock Hits Markets

This year’s Santa rally came with a Fed clause. Markets are recovering, but remain in turmoil after officials at the world’s most powerful central bank turned far more hawkish on the year ahead than almost anyone had expected even as they lowered benchmark interest rates for a third consecutive time. The dollar is trading near a post-2022 peak, ten-year Treasury yields are holding at seven month highs above 4.5 percent, most major equity indices are down more than 3 percent, and the VIX volatility index—Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—is up dramatically after hitting its loftiest levels since the August 7 volatility...

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18 Dec 2024

Markets Brace for Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”

Financial markets are treading water this morning ahead of the year’s last Federal Reserve decision. US Treasury yields and the dollar are holding in narrow trading ranges, equity markets are pushing higher, and commodity prices are moving sideways. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Fed to deliver a “hawkish cut” this afternoon. After a series of data releases showing labour markets losing momentum and inflation holding steady, policymakers are widely believed likely to lower the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 4.25-4.50 percent – but the “dot plot” summary of economic projections is seen signalling...

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