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GBP

14 Jul 2025

Markets Keep Playing Chicken With Trump

Financial markets are beginning the week in a remarkably-calm state after the Trump administration spent the weekend escalating its trade war and stepping up its assault on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. The dollar is trading on a slightly firmer footing after posting its best performance since February last week, Treasury yields are up incrementally, and equity futures are pointing to modest selling at the open. Both the euro and Mexican peso are trading only slightly below Friday’s closing levels, even after Trump threatened to impose 30-percent tariffs on imports from August 1 in a pair of early-Saturday missives. Traders...

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11 Jul 2025

Dollar Firms As Trump’s Letter-Writing Campaign Accelerates

The dollar looks set to end the week on a more supportive footing after Donald Trump redoubled his efforts to revive the forgotten art of letter writing, threatening to substantially raise tariffs on Canadian goods and warning that he would soon announce increases in levies on most other countries. Ten-year yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for a softer session, and currencies like the euro and Mexican peso are retreating as investors brace for the next round of trade threats. The European Union will get a letter “today or tomorrow,” NBC quoted the president saying last night,...

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09 Jul 2025

Tariff pen pals

• Holding on. US sends out more tariff letters. Equities unfazed with S&P500 pushing higher. Bond yields dip. USD consolidated. AUD range-bound.• RBNZ steady. RBNZ on hold. But underlying tone & outlook still points to a bit more easing over coming months. This should act as a NZD handbrake.• AUD trends. AUD hovering near top end of its multi-month range. We think the risks of a USD rebound / AUD pull-back are starting to build. Global Trends Outside of a few more tariff letters being sent out by the US, news flow was light overnight and there were few economic...

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07 Jul 2025

Markets Trade Sideways As Trade Uncertainties Loom

The dollar is holding near a three-year low and measures of risk appetite are pointing to subdued trading action after the Trump administration seemingly extended its tariff deadline to August 1—reducing fears of a violent selloff around Wednesday’s original drop-dead date. Measures of trade policy uncertainty* have fallen sharply from their heights. At an event dubbed “Liberation Day” in early April, President Trump said imports from most countries would become subject to a 10 percent baseline tariff rate, and additional “reciprocal” levies—some ranging as high as 50 percent—would be applied against those running large trade imbalances with the US. However,...

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03 Jul 2025

Jobs boost

• Upbeat tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD edged up overnight. EUR eased back, as did NZD & AUD, though they remain at high levels.• US data. US jobs report a bit better than expected. But topline result masks some pockets of weakness under the hood. Private payrolls were soft.• Event radar. US on holiday tonight. Next week RBA & RBNZ meet. RBA expected to cut rates. US’ ‘pause’ on higher tariffs also due to end. Global Trends Ahead of tonight’s US Independence Day holiday US equities extended their upswing, bond yields rose, and the USD recouped a...

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