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GBP

15 Jan 2025

Softening In Underlying US Inflation Triggers Global Relief Rally

Underlying inflation showed signs of decelerating in the United States last month, avoiding a widely-feared surge, and giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room as officials assess their next steps. The dollar is retreating against its major counterparts, Treasury yields are falling across the front end of the curve, and equity futures are surging as a relief rally unfolds across asset classes. Core price growth faded somewhat. According to data just published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.2 percent in December from the same period last year, up...

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14 Jan 2025

Turbulent times

• Tariff news. Reports the Trump Administration might implement tariffs month-by-month calmed some market nerves. USD eased helping AUD & NZD tick up.• Stepping back. But moves were modest compared to recent trends. AUD & NZD remain near the bottom of their respective multi-year ranges.• Event radar. UK & US CPI released tonight. Several Fed members speaking. AU employment tomorrow. US retail sales & China data also due this week. Global TrendsIt has been a turbulent start to 2025, though a sense of calm somewhat returned yesterday after media reports suggested the incoming Trump Administration might implement trade tariffs on...

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13 Jan 2025

Dollar Juggernaut Gains Momentum

The almighty greenback is trading near a two-year high after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report reinforced expectations for a prolonged pause in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. When measured against a basket of its most widely-traded counterparts, the dollar is at its strongest levels since November 2022, supported by ten-year Treasury yields that are inexorably moving closer to the 5 percent threshold that was last broken in October 2023. Most major currencies are down roughly three quarters of a percentage point from Friday’s open, although the Canadian dollar is outperforming after December’s surprisingly-large gain in jobs, and the British pound is...

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10 Jan 2025

Strong Payrolls Report Reignites Dollar Rally

The US created more jobs than expected in December, putting renewed momentum behind Treasury yields and the dollar. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 256,000 jobs were added in the month—solidly topping the 165,000-position consensus forecast—and the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, suggesting that underlying labour market conditions remained strong. November’s number was revised down to 212,000 from the 227,000 previously estimated, and average hourly earnings climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, meeting expectations in slowing slightly from the 0.4-percent pace set in the prior month. The dollar is climbing and Treasury yields are spiking higher...

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09 Jan 2025

Bond Market Turmoil Eases, Dollar Edges Lower

A multi-day selloff in global bond markets appears to be easing, providing some support to currencies outside the United States. The US ten-year yield is holding near 4.65 percent this morning after breaking through 4.72 percent in yesterday’s session, and rates are easing across most major economies, helping the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar stabilise against the dollar. A series of better-than-expected economic data releases—paired with growing fears surrounding the incoming Trump administration’s impact on inflation—have lifted US yields in recent weeks, widening cross-currency rate differentials even as global borrowing costs have moved higher. With the economy performing well, underlying...

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