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GBP

07 Oct 2025

Markets rally on AI hopes, yen continues its descent

Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing higher, and equity futures are pointing to further gains at the open after OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices yesterday announced they would collaborate to build AI data centres, with the ChatGPT maker agreeing to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of chips from AMD while taking a 10-percent stake in the chipmaker over time. The euro is consolidating around lower levels as the dust settles after French...

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06 Oct 2025

Japanese market jolt

• Push-pull forces. US shutdown still in place. Geopolitics outside US generates some vol. EUR & JPY lose ground. AUD & NZD edge up a little.• Japan politics. Shock leadership selection jolted Japanese markets. Nikkei surged & JPY weakened on prospect of fewer rate hikes & fiscal stimulus.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Debate is on the size with markets split between a 25bp & 50bp move. NZD volatility anticipated. Global Trends The US Government Shutdown, which kicked off at the start of October, remains firmly in place and there appears to be little movement from either...

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03 Oct 2025

Currency trading ranges shrink as markets continue to ignore shutdown risks

Rumours of the dollar’s shutdown-inflicted death have been greatly exaggerated. The greenback is holding firm against its major rivals this morning despite confirmation that the US government will remain crippled into a second week, indicating that traders don’t expect the political impasse to result in any meaningful diminishment in the global appetite for American financial assets. On a week-to-date basis, the pound and euro are up 0.3 percent against the dollar, the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are down 0.2 percent, and the Australian dollar is sitting on a nice circa-1-percent gain after the Reserve Bank signalled a more cautious...

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01 Oct 2025

US shutdown vacuum

• Holding on. Markets take the latest US shutdown in stride. US equities edged up while bond yields slipped back. USD & AUD tread water.• US shutdown. No real sense of urgency to strike a deal quickly. US shutdown could drag out. This might be a negative for US growth & the USD.• Data void. US government shutdown also means US economic data, such as Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, may be put on hold. Global Trends The latest US Government Shutdown kicked off yesterday and financial markets have so far taken it in stride. European equities registered solid gains (EuroStoxx600...

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30 Sep 2025

Another US government shutdown

• Holding firm. US equities ticked up overnight, while bond yields consolidated & USD weakened. AUD rose with AUD also outperforming on the crosses.• RBA holds. No change by RBA. Comments leant more ‘hawkish’. Sticky inflation & improving growth means another rate cut isn’t guaranteed.• US shutdown. Without a last minute deal another US government shutdown will kick off today (~2pm AEST). We think this may be a drag on the USD. Global Trends Modest moves across markets overnight with another US government shutdown looking likely to kick off today (see below). US and European equities ticked up with the...

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