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Markets Rally Into the Open, Supported By AI Outlook and Weaker Inflation

Optimism is rippling across the financial markets and US equity futures are setting up for another strong open after Oracle Corp. said its contract backlog exploded by a staggering 359 percent to $455 billion in its first quarter, underscoring the sheer scale of the ongoing buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. By our estimates, the top ten AI-focused companies listed on US exchanges have collectively invested approximately $383 billion in capital expenditures over the past four quarters—equivalent to nearly 1.3 percent of gross domestic product—and are poised to commit at least another $475 billion over the coming year, providing a powerful...

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US jobs slowdown

• Mixed markets. US equities touched a record. Bond yields rose, as did the USD. AUD drifted back after coming close to its year-to-date peak.• US jobs. Revisions to US payrolls larger than anticipated. Pace of jobs growth looks a lot slower. US Fed likely to deliver a series of rate cuts.• Inflation trends. US producer price inflation due tonight. Consumer prices out tomorrow. Will the data show greater pass-through from tariffs? Global Trends A mixed performance across markets overnight. The US S&P500 (+0.3%) hit a fresh record with the index now over 10% higher compared to where it ended...

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Easing Financial Conditions Translate Into Broad-Based Optimism

A sense of optimism is percolating across global financial markets this morning, underpinned by hopes for a drawn-out monetary easing campaign from the Federal Reserve. Long-term bond yields are coming down across most advanced economies, equity indices are advancing, and currency markets are displaying risk-on characteristics, with the dollar retreating against all of its major peers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its latest set of benchmark revisions at 10:00 this morning, potentially providing evidence of a slowdown in job creation long before Donald Trump’s tariffs sent measures of policy uncertainty soaring. The estimate, based on the Quarterly Census...

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Onwards & upwards

• Upbeat tone. Markets continue to factor in US Fed rate cuts. US bond yields fell further & USD weakened. AUD approaching top of its year-to-date range.• US jobs. Benchmark revisions to US payrolls due tonight. Negative revisions could keep USD on backfoot, a tailwind for other currencies.• Inflation pulse. US producer & consumer prices due later this week. More signs of tariff driven inflation may generate a burst of market volatility. Global Trends News wise it has been a quiet start to the week. The lack of fresh information has seen markets reinforce their US Fed interest rate cut...

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Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Reports

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors keep an eye on international developments and await inflation data that could alter US monetary policy expectations across the front end of the curve. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding firm, equity futures are setting up for gains at the North American open, and the dollar is trading slightly lower against its major peers after a relatively-subdued reaction to Friday’s data. Markets are assigning better than 100-percent odds to a rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve’s meeting after Friday’s non-farm payrolls report delivered incontrovertible evidence of a slowdown in US labour...

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