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EUR

Market Calm Remains Intact 

Treasury yields and the broad dollar are coming under selling pressure ahead of this morning’s inflation report, but position-taking looks relatively subdued. The report, due in less than half an hour, is expected to show the core consumer price index rising by 3.8 percent in the year to December, slowing from 4 percent in November and helping set the stage for rules-driven rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months. As we had suspected, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams attempted to rebuff these easing expectations in a speech yesterday, but markets paid him little...

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Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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Trading Ranges Narrow Ahead of US Inflation Print

Currency markets remain fundamentally directionless this morning as traders batten the hatches ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation report. The DXY dollar index is modestly softer, dragged lower by an incremental decline in Treasury yields, and equity futures are setting up for another day of sideways movement. Oil prices are lending the Canadian dollar some support, with both major benchmarks rising as tensions in the Middle East ratchet higher. Houthi rebels based in Yemen fired eighteen drones, two cruise missiles and a ballistic missile at shipping in the Red Sea during European trading hours, adding to the likelihood of an assault...

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Risk sentiment turns

• Market jitters. European/US equities gave back some ground, as did industrial metals. Global growth concerns also gave the USD a bit of a boost.• AUD underperforms. The global backdrop more than counteracted the positive Australia economic data. Black Friday helped retail sales exceed expectations.• AU inflation. The monthly CPI indicator is released today. Headline CPI is forecast to slow, but the RBA is more focused on core & services inflation. Risk sentiment soured a bit overnight. European and US equities gave back some of the gains from a day earlier (EuroStoxx50 -0.4% and US S&P500 -0.2%), US bond yields...

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Caution Prevails, Keeping Currencies Rangebound

The dollar is performing in a mixed manner relative to its major rivals this morning as risk appetite fades amid a lack of definitive trading narratives. Investors are taking dovish comments from the Bank of Portugal’s Governor with a huge helping of salt. The euro-dollar exchange rate remained effectively unchanged after Mario Centeno told an interviewer “I don’t think we have to wait until May” to make a decision on cutting rates, “I don’t see any sign that second-round effects on wages have materialised or will materialise or that wages will put additional pressure on prices”. Odds on the European...

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