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EUR

03 Mar 2025

Tariffs & economic risks

• US risks. ISM manufacturing index underwhelmed. Pres. Trump reiterated that tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, & China kick in tomorrow.• Risk sentiment. Backdrop weighed on US yields & equities. AUD/USD holding its ground, but AUD underperformed the EUR, GBP, & JPY.• Volatility. More bursts of market volatility likely. Several global & domestic risk events are scheduled over the rest of this week. Global Trends Diverging regional performance across markets overnight. In Europe, efforts to forge a Ukraine/Russia peace plan and the prospect of greater regional defence spending supported equities (particularly the aerospace and defence sector), pushed up bond...

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03 Mar 2025

Dollar Retreats as Economic Data Slows and Geopolitical Shifts Bolster the Euro

The dollar is down sharply against most of its major rivals this morning as bets on the ‘US exceptionalism’ trade are unwound and investors throw money at the euro area ahead of an expected rise in government spending on defence. Defying consensus forecasts, on a year-to-date basis, the most widely-quoted measure of the greenback’s value—the DXY “Dixie” dollar index—is now down 2.3 percent, while the euro is up 1 percent, and the Japanese yen is sitting on top of the major-currency leaderboard with a near-4-percent gain. Stagflation worries are suddenly stalking the US economy and financial markets. Friday’s personal spending...

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02 Mar 2025

Macro & geopolitical risks

• Market tensions. Outside of a late session rally in US stocks there was a ‘risk off’ tone. Bond yields fell. USD rose. AUD near where it started February.• Volatility. Markets have been volatile since the November US election. Given the Trump policy platform more bursts of volatility likely over the near-term.• Event radar. US tariffs on MX, CA & CH due to start this week. US jobs report & speeches by Pres. Trump & Fed Chair Powell scheduled. AU GDP due. Global Trends Financial markets remain on edge as underlying macro concerns are compounded by geopolitical tensions. Outside of...

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28 Feb 2025

Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets and US Consumption

The dollar remains firmly on the offensive after Donald Trump reiterated his threat to impose near-universal 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as next week. Ten-year Treasury yields are trading close to the 4.25 percent threshold after having lost almost 35 basis points since the middle of the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indices have given back all of this year’s gains, and a sense of caution is gripping currency markets as a range of indicators point to an uncertainty-driven slowdown in the world’s largest economy—and in the countries that it trades with. The US...

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27 Feb 2025

Tariff tango

• US tariffs. Pres. Trump confirms tariffs on Canada & Mexico will go ahead next week. Another 10% will also be placed on imports from China.• Negative jolt. US equities lost ground. The USD rose, while AUD & NZD declined ~1%. AUD is back down near where it started the month.• More volatility. Headline driven markets point to more bursts of volatility. Since the late-80s the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~1% daily range. Global Trends A bout of risk aversion washed through markets with US tariff related headlines continuing to generate volatility. After indicating yesterday that the...

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