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EUR

Currency Momentum Slows As Markets Wait To Exhale

An early-week rebound in the dollar is losing steam this morning as markets shift focus toward macroeconomic indicators and await developments in trade negotiations between the US and China. The greenback is trading slightly lower against a basket of its most-traded peers, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are almost unchanged, and equity futures are positioning for modest gains at the North American open. Data published yesterday showed US labour markets cooling only slightly in April, even as business and consumer confidence measures plunged. According to the closely-watched Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, job postings increased by 191,000 to 7.4 million...

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Markets Turn Defensive

The dollar is inching off a two-year low as investors adopt a defensive posture ahead of this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, which is expected to confirm a cooling in US labour market conditions ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Mentions of layoffs on corporate earnings calls have been minimal, and unemployment claims remain well below levels that have historically signalled growing stress, but economists have drastically lowered job creation forecasts*, and market participants are bracing for an imminent slowdown. Treasury yields are slipping as traders anticipate more easing from the Federal Reserve, North American equity indices are...

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Trade War Flare-Up Destabilises Dollar

The dollar is back on the defensive as June begins, retreating amid a worsening in trade tensions between the United States and its global counterparts. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced he would double steel tariffs to 50 percent, again raising taxes on American consumers while prompting fears of a new round of countermeasures from Canada and the European Union. China yesterday accused the US of “seriously violating” the trade ceasefire agreed in Geneva last month, noting that Washington has imposed a series of “discriminatory restrictive measures,” including restrictions on chip design software, warnings against the purchase of Huawei products,...

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Hold the line

• Holding on. Consolidation across markets on Friday. US yields slipped back. AUD & NZD tread water. AUD near 1-month average.• Data flow. Tariff impacts starting to show. Container traffic to US slowing. Medium-term downside growth risks remain in place, in our view.• Event Radar. Q1 AU GDP due this week. ECB & BoC are meeting. A few US Fed members speak. US ISM & monthly jobs report also scheduled. Global Trends Despite a flurry of US data releases on Friday it was a quiet end to the week in markets. On net the US S&P500 was little changed over...

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Tariff Celebration Proves Short-Lived

Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs – but the relief rally is fading in the face of data that suggests the economy is losing momentum. North American equity indices are still marching toward solid gains – partially supported by last night’s positive earnings release from artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp. – and implied volatility expectations are declining, but ten-year Treasury yields are falling, and the dollar is conceding territory as the session...

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