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EUR

20 Feb 2026

US economy slows, but exhibits signs of resilience, keeping dollar aloft

The American economy slowed by more than expected in the final quarter of 2025, with weaker consumer spending, trade effects, and the government shutdown combining to sap momentum. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed gross domestic product rising at a 1.4-percent annual rate in the fourth quarter after a 4.4-percent jump in the three months prior, surprising economists who had anticipated a print closer to the 3-percent mark. Household spending decelerated to a 2.4 percent pace from 3.5 percent previously, net exports flatlined as tariff front-running effects continued to offset themselves, and the government shutdown...

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19 Feb 2026

Hawkish Fed minutes keep dollar well-supported

Good morning. The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts as the aftermath of yesterday’s more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve minutes puts upward pressure on yields and weakens demand for speculative asset classes. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching higher, equity futures are setting up for modest losses ahead of the North American open, and the euro, pound, and Mexican peso are all coming under mild selling pressure even as rate curves shift upward in sympathy. Federal Reserve officials showed little inclination to ease policy at last month’s meeting, with the bulk of the rate-setting committee hoping to see further progress...

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18 Feb 2026

USD perking up

• Positive trends. A run of better than anticipated US data supported the USD. AUD drifted lower. NZD underperforms after yesterday’s RBNZ meeting.• Macro news. RBNZ points to rate hikes later this year. But markets already factoring that in. Australian jobs report in focus today. Will unemployment lift? Global Trends It was a positive night for US markets with equities (S&P500 +0.6%), bond yields (+3bps across the curve), and the USD rising. EUR dipped towards ~$1.1780, USD/JPY tracked the lift in US bond yields (now ~154.80), and GBP remained on the backfoot (now ~$1.3499). The AUD drifted a bit lower...

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18 Feb 2026

Markets show tentative signs of recovery

Investors are bargain-hunting across the financial markets this morning, scooping up discounted assets after a multi-week selloff. Futures on North American equity markets are pointing to gains after the open, Treasury yields are inching higher, and economically-sensitive currencies are outperforming their safe-haven brethren amid a broader improvement in risk appetite. The Canadian dollar remains narrowly rangebound after yesterday’s inflation figures failed to alter expectations for the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year. After delivering an aggressive 200 basis points in easing over the last two years, the Bank has landed near what...

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17 Feb 2026

RBNZ in focus

• Choppy markets. Intra-session swings overnight. Positive steps between US/Iran help sentiment. AUD & NZD tick a bit higher in quiet trading.• Macro events. RBNZ today. No change in rates expected. New forecasts released. AU wages out today ahead of the monthly jobs report tomorrow. Global Trends Markets were choppy overnight with intra-session swings translating to only limited net changes. For example, after falling by nearly 1% at the open on the back of lingering AI uncertainty, the US S&P500 clawed its way back into positive territory (+0.1% over the day). In bonds, US yields edged a fraction higher (+1-3bps...

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