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EUR

21 Jun 2024

Dollar Steadies Ahead of Equity Market ‘Triple Witching’

The US dollar looks set to consolidate its weekly gains in today’s session as traders remain cautious, but equity markets could exhibit some volatility as a ‘triple witching’ episode – when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day – contributes to abnormal activity. Treasury yields are holding steady, and oil prices are inching higher. The Mexican peso staged a modest recovery late in yesterday’s session after Claudia Sheinbaum said she would appoint former foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard to head the economic ministry, helping assuage market concerns around a lurch toward populist policymaking. Ebrard...

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20 Jun 2024

AUD cross-currents

• Mixed markets. European equities rose, while US stocks slipped back. Dovish European central bank outcomes weighed on EUR & GBP. USD a bit firmer.• Central banks. SNB cut rates again. The BoE opened the door to a move in August. The cross-currents pushed AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP higher.• Data flow. PMIs in focus today with data from Europe & the US due. Is the US’ outperformance fading? If so, the USD may lose ground. There were several pieces of global economic news overnight, yet for the most part the net financial market moves were modest. Equities across Europe rose again...

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20 Jun 2024

Central Bank Easing Hints Boost Risk Appetite

The dollar is reversing an early-week decline and Treasury yields are creeping higher as market participants return from yesterday’s US holiday. North American equity futures are adding to their gains, and a broader improvement in sentiment is helping feed through into appreciation in high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – amid still-thin trading conditions. A surprise easing decision from the Swiss National Bank is helping bolster liquidity expectations. Officials in the financial safe haven elected to lower inflation projections and deliver a 25 basis point rate cut as they work to reduce restrictiveness and counter recent strength in the...

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19 Jun 2024

AUD outperformance continues

• Quiet trade. A public holiday in the US. European equities a bit lower. UK yields a touch higher after UK services inflation surprised. USD consolidates.• AUD trends. The AUD’s post RBA grind higher extended. AUD/EUR touched a 1-year high, AUD/JPY at levels last traded in 2013.• Global data. Q1 NZ GDP shows economy emerged from ‘technical recession’. Bank of England meeting tonight. With the US away on a mid-week public holiday markets were quiet overnight. US equity and bond markets were closed. In Europe, equities gave back a little ground (EuroStoxx50 -0.6%), although the UK FTSE100 moved in the...

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18 Jun 2024

Hawkish RBA vibes support the AUD

• Upbeat tone. Negative US economic news was good news for markets. Softer US retail sales weighed on bond yields which in turn boosted risk assets.• RBA meeting. No change in rates but the RBA’s tone was more ‘hawkish’. Inflation risks remain. We think RBA cuts still look some time away.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop has supported the AUD. AUD/EUR is at a multi-month high, while AUD/JPY is at levels last traded in 2013. The positive vibes continued overnight. Easing concerns about the upcoming French parliamentary elections was compounded by softer US retail sales. The underwhelming US economic news was...

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