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EUR

Holding pattern

• Range trading. US equities rebound, while bond yields & the USD tread water. Upside surprise in Canadian inflation generated limited CAD impact.• AU CPI. May reading of the monthly CPI due today. Data will include more services prices. Consensus looking for annual inflation to re-accelerate.• US events. No major US data or speeches tonight. Durable goods (Thurs night AEST) & PCE deflator (Fri night AEST) the next key US releases. In the main global markets continue to range trade with Northern Hemisphere summer trading conditions kicking into gear. Unlike the modest falls across European equities (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%), US equities...

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Rebalancing Flows Drive Mixed Currency Outcomes

Month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows are driving the dollar down against most of its major counterparts this morning, providing a modicum of relief across a range of asset classes. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are edging higher after tumbling yesterday on a rotation out of technology sector stocks, Treasury yields are up almost imperceptibly, and the commodity complex is experiencing a mild bout of mean reversion. The Mexican peso is grinding higher after carry traders piled back in during yesterday’s session, seizing on wide rate differentials and falling volatility expectations to drive the exchange rate to a circa-1.4-percent gain. Investors...

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Watching & waiting

• Consolidation. Quiet start to the week. Easing French election risks supported European equities & the EUR. Softer USD pushed AUD a bit higher.• JPY watch. USD/JPY is around levels which previously triggered bouts of FX intervention. Verbal rhetoric by Japanese officials is starting to pick up.• Inflation pulse. US core PCE deflator (due Fri) likely to slow, while monthly AU CPI (due Weds) could re-accelerate. Diverging trends are AUD supportive. It has been a quiet start to the new week. This isn’t surprising given the bulk of the potential market moving global releases such as US durable goods orders...

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Currency Markets Brace for Event Risk-Laden Week

Currency traders are on edge ahead of a series of event risks that could trigger renewed volatility in foreign exchange markets. The dollar is inching lower after last week brought confirmation of a weakening in retail sales, along with an unexpected increase in jobless claims during the June non-farm payrolls survey period. Recent data has shown clear evidence of slowing momentum in the US economy, but the greenback has continued to win the “cleanest dirty shirt” contest, emerging largely unscathed as other major currencies have come under selling pressure. Friday’s ‘triple witching’ session left the major equity indices unharmed, but...

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Inflation & politics this weeks focus

• Macro trends. Weaker EZ PMIs weighed on EUR. Positive US surprises also helped the USD. AUD drifted lower, but still rose over the week.• AUD crosses. Diverging trends still AUD supportive, particularly on crosses. AUD/EUR & AUD/CAD near respective 1-year highs. AUD/JPY north of 106.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI (Weds) & speech by the RBA Dep. Gov in focus. US PCE deflator due (Fri) & first Presidential Election debate will be held. Diverging business PMI data from Europe and the US generated a few intra-session market gyrations on Friday. The US data defied gravity with the PMIs improving...

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