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EUR

Markets Rise on Expected Dovish Message from Fed Chair

The dollar is climbing off a nearly one-month low and measures of risk sentiment are improving as traders jostle for position ahead of this morning’s Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Powell is widely expected to adopt a dovish stance, describing a more “balanced” outlook, with downside risks in the labour market beginning to outweigh inflation in driving monetary policy calculations. In prepared comments released ahead of his appearance before the Senate banking committee, the Fed chair is likely to acknowledge signs of slowing momentum in the central bank’s preferred economic indicators, with price growth cooling, consumer spending ebbing,...

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Will Fed Chair Powell rattle markets?

• Quiet markets. Small market moves overnight with reaction to the French election result minimal. Bond yields consolidated. USD a touch firmer.• Fed commentary. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. Will he note the loosening in the jobs market & keep the door open to rate cuts later this year?• AU data. Consumer confidence & business conditions due today. Diverging macro/policy trends in Australia’s favour are AUD supportive. A quiet start to the week with the major asset markets confined to tight ranges. Reaction to the surprise result in the second round of the French parliamentary elections where the leftist alliance...

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Calm Returns as French Election Ends in Stalemate

Foreign exchange rates are settling into narrower trading ranges this morning as political risks ebb and the dollar’s retreat continues. The euro is modestly lower after an alliance of left-wing parties achieved a stunning upset in the French election, making a “hung parliament” – in which no single group can dominate the legislative agenda – the most probable outcome. Defying polls that showed Marine le Pen’s Rassemblement National on track toward gaining the biggest delegation in the National Assembly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Socialist Nouveau Front Populaire is leading with 182 seats, with most constituencies counted, followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble...

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Dollar Falls As Payrolls Loom

The dollar is retreating and global stock markets are marching toward record highs ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that is expected to show US labour markets softening, helping set the stage for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the early autumn. The British pound is adding to its gains after Keir Starmer’s Labour Party absolutely crushed its Conservative opponents in yesterday’s British election, taking at least 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. Traders expect Starmer’s government to usher in a period of relative political calm after 14 years of volatile Tory rule, with higher levels...

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US payrolls in focus

• US holiday. Quiet trading with the US shut for Independence Day. European equities, yields, & EUR higher on the back of easing French political risks.• AUD upswing. Softer USD & relative macro trends supporting the AUD. AUD/USD near the top of the range it has occupied since early-January.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs the US jobs market is cooling could bolster Fed rate cut expectations which would drag on the USD. With the US markets shut for Independence Day it was relatively quiet overnight. There was a bit of a ‘risk on’ vibe in European trading...

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