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EUR

28 Jul 2024

Push & pull factors

• Positive tone. Improved risk sentiment. Equities rebound. Bond yields lower. Backdrop helps the AUD claw back a little lost ground.• Volatility bursts. It is a jam-packed week of events. We think more market volatility is likely as the macro cross-currents wash through.• Event radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). BoJ (Weds), BoE & US Fed (both Thurs) meet. US payrolls are released (Fri), as is the China PMI & EZ CPI (Weds). After a challenging spell risk sentiment improved a bit at the end of last week. European and US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 up over...

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26 Jul 2024

Fear Eases As US Economy Accelerates

A safe-haven bid in foreign exchange markets appears to be fading this morning, with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc losing altitude as downward pressure on risk-sensitive asset classes begins to ease. The dollar’s gains are slowing, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are setting up for a positive open after a paroxysm of selling saw major indices suffer their biggest losses in more than two years during Wednesday’s session. High-yielding currencies are climbing as carry trade flows hesitantly return, and risk proxies — like the Canadian and Australian dollars — are advancing on a generalised basis. Yesterday’s...

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25 Jul 2024

Yen trends

• Mixed markets. Equities dip again & while long-end yields declined base metal & energy prices ticked up. USD consolidates but AUD still under pressure.• US data. Q2 US GDP higher than predicted. But forward indicators suggest this is a false dawn. US PCE deflator due tonight. US Fed meets next week.• JPY trends. JPY’s sharp rebound has been a factor weighing on the AUD. Q2 Australian CPI released next week. Will this help the AUD recover? Negative vibes across risk assets have generally continued, though there were a few positive signs starting to emerge. Q2 US GDP was the...

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24 Jul 2024

Tech tumble

• Negative vibes. Large fall in US equities overnight. Copper fell further. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. BoC cut rates again & flagged more moves.• JPY swings. JPY revival continues. AUD/JPY dropped sharply from mid-July peak. This looks to be a factor behind the AUD’s broader underperformance.• Data flow. US Q2 GDP released tonight. US PCE deflator due tomorrow. Next week Q2 AU CPI, the US Fed meeting, & US jobs report will be in focus. The pull-back in equities stepped up a notch overnight, particularly in the US where a tech-sector led sell-off dragged on the overall...

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24 Jul 2024

Earnings Season Drives Currency Markets

Foreign exchange rates are looking relatively stable this morning, with modest price action largely dictated by events in stock markets. Equity futures are down – putting some pressure on risk-sensitive currency pairs and raising the dollar’s safe-haven value – after Tesla, LVMH and Deutsche Bank reported disappointing earnings. Treasury yields are inching lower, but remain elevated on the back end as investors brace for continued fiscal expansion under either of the current front-runners for US president. The euro is trading near a two-week low after private sector activity decelerated more than expected in early July, suggesting that an early-year economic...

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