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EUR

20 Aug 2024

USD doldrums

• Mixed markets. Equities slip back, while bond yields & the USD lose ground. EUR above ~$1.11 for first time this year. AUD at ~1-month high.• Global events. JPY also stronger. BoJ research papers keep door open to more hikes. Canadian inflation slows & Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates again.• US data. Annual US payrolls revisions due tonight. Downward revisions look likely. PMIs (Thurs) & Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Fri) the main events. Mixed, albeit modest moves, across asset markets overnight. After a stellar run equities paused for breath with the US S&P500 slipping back (-0.2%), its first fall in 9...

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20 Aug 2024

Dollar Selloff Resumes Ahead of Jackson Hole

A selloff in the dollar is intensifying this morning as investors grow more confident in a clear easing signal from Chair Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole economic symposium later this week. The greenback is holding near a three-week low, almost erasing its year-to-date gains, Treasury yields are ratcheting lower, equity indices are climbing, and volatility assumptions are coming down as a tide of optimism washes over global markets. The euro is trading near its highest levels this year as investors turn more cautious on the European Central Bank’s rate cutting path. Measures of underlying inflation slowed only...

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19 Aug 2024

USD on struggle street

• Risk on. Equities continue to climb with the S&P500 up for the 8th straight day. The USD has weakened. The AUD is up at a 1-month high.• Fed comments. A few Fed officials have suggested a cut in September is up for debate. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole later this week.• Already priced? But this already looks well priced in. Cautious comments from Powell could see US rate expectations & the USD rebound. No new major news continues to be good news for markets. Equities have continued to power ahead. The US tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed (+1.4%) with the...

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19 Aug 2024

Dollar Retraces Last Week’s Rebound on Easing Expectations

The case for an emergency-style half percentage-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting took a series of blows last week, helping boost Treasury yields and halt the dollar’s long slump. Inflation slowed in July, but exhibited no evidence of collapsing consumer demand. Initial applications for unemployment benefits fell for a second consecutive week, suggesting that labour markets were not suffering the violent reversal feared only a few weeks earlier. And recession worries eased as headline retail sales accelerated by the most since last January. Jerome Powell is widely expected to telegraph a September rate cut in Friday’s appearance...

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18 Aug 2024

Jackson Hole in focus

• US trends. US equities power ahead, while bond yields & the USD lost ground. AUD up at a multi-week high despite the slump in iron ore.• Fed speech. Fed Chair Powell speaks later this week. Will he push back on the still aggressive near-term rate cut expectations?• Event radar. In addition to the Jackson Hole speech the global PMIs (Thurs), Japan CPI (Fri) & NZ retail sales (Fri) are also due. It was a rather subdued end to a busy week on Friday with limited new economic information released to challenge the status quo. Equities continued to move higher...

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