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EUR

11 Nov 2024

Diverging trends

• Hold the line. US equities at record highs, while shifting spreads are supporting the USD. EUR at multi-month low. AUD drifting back.• AUD divergence. AUD losing ground to the stronger USD. But it is holding up on the crosses. We expect these trends to continue.• Data flow. AU business conditions out today, as is the UK jobs report. Several US Fed members speaking over the next few sessions. It has been a quiet start to the week. Unsurprising given the US bond market was closed for Veteran’s Day and the lack of data releases/new information to move the dial....

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10 Nov 2024

Hang on for the ride

• Market swings. US equities rose, while widening yield spreads support the USD. AUD slips back after China stimulus underwhelms.• FX trends. The Trump policy mix looks set to keep the USD stronger for longer. We think this will constrain the AUD’s medium-term upside.• Event radar. Locally, wages & monthly jobs report are due. US CPI inflation, retail sales, speech by Fed Chair Powell, & China data also scheduled. Market gyrations continued Friday as the win by President Trump in the US elections (and prospect of a Republican sweep of Congress) is incorporated into people’s projections, central bank actions washed...

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08 Nov 2024

Currency Market Mean Reversion Continues, Weakening Dollar

The “Trump trade” that animated currency markets after Tuesday’s presidential election continues to dissipate this morning. The dollar’s post-election rally is now almost fully unwound, the Mexican peso and its emerging market brethren are broadly higher, and most major currencies – including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen – are either above, or just a few basis points below key psychological levels that could support further upside. Treasury yields are slightly lower after the Federal Reserve kept its options open in yesterday’s decision. Officials cut rates by a quarter percentage point and made semantic modifications to the accompanying statement...

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07 Nov 2024

Trump 2.0 & the AUD

The decisive victory by former President Trump in the 2024 US election and elevated odds the Republicans also sweep Congress has generated bursts of market volatility over the past few sessions. This might be a taste of things to come. The election result shouldn’t be viewed as a ‘shock’ as it was 8 years ago. The outcome was in line with the signal various opinion polls and probability gauges had been pointing to for several weeks. Nevertheless, as we had forewarned in our prior research, a Trump win (particularly if it was compounded by Republican victories in both chambers of...

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07 Nov 2024

Cool your jets

• Market swings. US equities powered ahead, while bond yields & the USD gave back some of their post US election gains. AUD & NZD rose.• Central banks. BoE & US Fed cut rates. Fed still on a path towards ‘neutral’. In time Trump policies may constrain its ability to lower rates as far as it thinks.• China measures. AUD & other cyclical assets also boosted by expectations China will announce more stimulus. Will China underdeliver again? A reversal of fortunes across most asset classes over the past 24hrs as markets cooled their jets a bit about President Trump’s second...

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