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EUR

25 Jun 2025

USD pressure points

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in early-July. However, this is largely priced in. Global Trends Some mixed fortunes across financial markets overnight, though on net the moves have been modest. In contrast to the solid rise across Asian equities...

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24 Jun 2025

Art of the truce

• Peacemaker. De-escalation of Israel/Iran conflict boosted sentiment. Equities rose, oil declined. This dragged down the USD. AUD & NZD higher.• Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell also spoke. Noted there is no rush to act, but kept door open to more policy easing if inflation remains contained.• AU CPI. CPI indicator due today. More info on services prices this month. Will the CPI show sticky core inflation? RBA next meets on 8 July. Global Trends Yesterday’s Israel/Iran ceasefire announcement improved the market mood with risk sentiment quite positive over the past 24hrs. After US President Trump criticized both sides for...

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23 Jun 2025

Markets Shrug Off US Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities

The weekend’s US bombing raids on Iran left measures of global risk appetite essentially unchanged, suggesting that traders expect Tehran to respond in a limited fashion. Both the Brent international crude benchmark and the North American West Texas Intermediate grade are ratcheting lower, with front-month prices slipping to $77 per barrel and $73 respectively after briefly hitting five-month highs in overnight trading. Treasury yields are holding steady, North American equity futures are pointing to a solidly-positive open, and the dollar is trading only modestly higher against a basket of its major counterparts. Headline risks remain substantial, but we think a...

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22 Jun 2025

Hammer blow

• Middle East. Weekend developments with the US entering the fray have dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer this morning. AUD on backfoot.• Fluid situation. How Iran responds will be in focus. Will it look to disrupt global oil flows? More market volatility anticipated over the period ahead.• Event Radar. Data wise AU CPI indicator due this week. Global PMIs are out today. Fed Chair Powell speaks & US PCE deflator is released. Global Trends Market wise there isn’t a lot to say about what happened on Friday night with US equities drifting back (S&P500 -0.2%), bond yields a touch...

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19 Jun 2025

Risk Sentiment Deteriorates As Liquidity Thins And Geopolitical Tensions Increase

The dollar is holding steady amid holiday-thinned trading conditions as investors process a raft of central bank policy announcements and brace for a spike in geopolitical tensions in the hours or days ahead. Treasury yields are down, equity futures are soft, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive counterparts after reports circulated suggesting that the US will join Israeli bombardment of Iran in the coming days and President Donald Trump said “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”. An escalation in the war is seen raising the risk of...

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