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EUR

21 May 2025

Dollar Retreats As Market Momentum Slows

The ‘Sell America’ trade is back in play this morning. The dollar is unwinding last week’s gains and is down against all of its major counterparts, US equity markets are setting up for a bruising open, and the Treasury curve is bear steepening*, with 30-year yields pushing back above the 5-percent threshold on growing concerns surrounding Washington’s fiscal trajectory. Oil prices are up on an unsubstantiated report suggesting that Israel is planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. Fiscal concerns are growing more acute. Republican lawmakers are reportedly close to approving a bill that would renew President Trump’s 2017 tax...

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14 May 2025

‘Mar A Lago Accord’ Fears Unnerve Dollar Bulls

The dollar is extending its losses this morning, following reports that the United States and South Korea held talks on Seoul’s foreign exchange policies in early May – a development that may signal a shift in Washington’s focus from trade imbalances to currency concerns. On a trade-weighted basis, the greenback has fallen more than a full percentage point against its peers in the euro area, United Kingdom, and Japan this week, bringing its year-to-date slump to more than 6 percent. The Korean won leapt higher along with many of its unpegged Asian counterparts after Bloomberg and Reuters cited sources saying...

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11 May 2025

Words vs actions

• Positive talks. Constructive talks between US/China over the weekend. But a deal may take some time. This may temper the markets excitement.• Market trends. Equity futures have opened positively. USD index a little firmer. AUD & NZD ticked up thanks to relative strength on cross-rates.• Event Radar. In AU the monthly jobs report is out (Thurs). In the US, CPI, retail sales, import prices due this week. Tariff impacts will be looked for. Global Trends Markets consolidated at the end of last week with limited economic data released and with participants lasering in on the weekend meeting between US...

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08 May 2025

The art of the deal

• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond yields. USD claws back more lost ground. NZD & AUD drift lower. AUD outperforms NZD, JPY & EUR.• Upcoming events. China trade data released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. Will the USD’s recovery extend? Global Trends US trade developments remain in the spotlight. After signaling that an announcement was in the pipeline yesterday the US unveiled a ‘framework’ for a deal with the UK. A positive...

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08 May 2025

Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire

Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning, raising hopes that a broader ratcheting down in tensions could avert lasting damage to the American and global economies. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower, while the euro and other majors are holding firm. Currency market reaction during the White House press conference itself could be fairly subdued. Although reports have suggested that the US is prepared to rescind taxes on autos along...

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