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EUR

Powering ahead

• Positive vibes. Upbeat sentiment on Friday. Reports bolstered expectations about US/China trade war de-escalation. Solid US jobs data also helped.• Market trends. US equities recorded 9th straight gain. AUD hovering at the top of its multi-month range. Labor wins Federal Election with larger majority.• Event Radar. In NZ Q1 jobs report due (Weds). US Fed & BoE also meet this week. BoE expected to cut rates while US Fed looks set to hold steady. Global Trends It was a positive end to last week in markets with equities extending their recovery, base metals and bond yields rising, and cyclical...

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US payrolls in focus

• US trends. US equities rose, as did bond yields & the USD. US ISM better than expected. Reports about potential US/China trade talks also helpful.• Macro news. Dovish tilt from BoJ weighed on JPY. US jobs report tonight. Signs the labour market is holding up could be USD supportive & drag on AUD.• AU election. Federal election takes place tomorrow. Polls pointing to a Labor win. We don’t expect the outcome to impact the RBA trajectory or the AUD. Global Trends Sentiment towards US assets continued to improve overnight with equities rising and the USD index appreciating. Stronger earnings...

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Risk-Sensitive Asset Prices Climb As Yields Fall

Markets are rallying this morning on optimism surrounding the prospect of more easing from the Federal Reserve as well as the growing likelihood of trade “deals” between the United States and its partners. Yields are down across the curve as investors bet a slowing economy could give central bankers more room to cut rates and equity indices are climbing in line with hopeful statements from administration officials currently negotiating agreements with Japan, India, and other countries. The dollar is up sharply. Data published yesterday overstated the scale of the downturn in the US economy. A massive jump in the trade...

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US economic tariff pain

• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends point to further RBA interest rate relief in May. Global Trends Despite a deluge of global economic data, particularly out of the US, and a few intra-session bursts of volatility the...

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Risk Appetite Falls As Stagflation Risks Stalk US Economy

A six-day improvement in risk appetite appears to be stalling out across the financial markets this morning, bolstering a “mean-reversion”* trade that has seen the dollar creep higher against most of its rivals through the early part of the week. Treasury yields are ticking higher, North American equity indices are poised for losses at the open, and safe-haven currencies are outperforming their risk-sensitive brethren. The American economy shrank for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter, but the slowdown wasn’t as profound as the headline number would suggest. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product contracted at an annualised -0.3-percent pace...

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