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EUR

16 Jan 2025

Holding on

• Mixed signals. US equities failed to push on despite further falls in bond yields. USD/JPY continues to slip back. AUD & NZD lose a bit of ground.• Data & comments. US consumer spending holding up. Fed’s Waller encouraged by inflation trends keeps the door open to more policy easing.• AU jobs. Another robust Australian labour force report. Unemployment better than RBA expecting. China data batch, which includes Q4 GDP, out today. Global Trends A mixed performance across markets overnight with the data flow and comments by US officials in focus. After yesterday’s strong rally US equities consolidated despite a...

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16 Jan 2025

Markets Pare Gains, But Remain Positive

Global financial markets are still in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s US consumer price index report showed core inflation rising by less than had been feared in December. The dollar reversed lower, ten-year Treasury yields dropped as much as 15 basis points across the curve, and equity markets soared through yesterday’s session, with only small adjustments occurring in this morning’s trading activity. We’re not sure this degree of relief is justified. Taken in combination with this week’s producer and import price data releases, it looks as if underlying inflation is stabilising just below the 3-percent level—well above pre-pandemic averages—with the...

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15 Jan 2025

US CPI boosts sentiment

• Inflation trends. Softer US & UK core CPI weighed on bond yields & supported risk sentiment overnight. The backdrop helped AUD & NZD edge higher.• AU jobs. Monthly labour force data due today. There is a risk of payback after a strong report last month. Softer figures could bolster RBA rate cut bets.• Data & politics. US retail sales out tonight. China data batch released tomorrow. Next week focus will be on the US Presidential Inauguration. Global TrendsUS and UK inflation was in focus overnight and downside surprises generated a ‘relief rally’ in some of the recently beaten-up markets....

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14 Jan 2025

Turbulent times

• Tariff news. Reports the Trump Administration might implement tariffs month-by-month calmed some market nerves. USD eased helping AUD & NZD tick up.• Stepping back. But moves were modest compared to recent trends. AUD & NZD remain near the bottom of their respective multi-year ranges.• Event radar. UK & US CPI released tonight. Several Fed members speaking. AU employment tomorrow. US retail sales & China data also due this week. Global TrendsIt has been a turbulent start to 2025, though a sense of calm somewhat returned yesterday after media reports suggested the incoming Trump Administration might implement trade tariffs on...

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14 Jan 2025

‘Gradual’ Tariff Plan Relieves Markets

Currency markets are breathing a sigh of relief after a report suggested that the incoming Trump administration could follow a “gradual” trajectory in ratcheting tariffs higher. According to Bloomberg, officials are considering an approach that would entail raising import taxes by 2 to 5 percent a month on major US trading partners, preserving the president-elect’s negotiating leverage while giving the government time to assess the impact on inflation. The greenback is retreating against many of its major peers, with the euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Mexican peso making the biggest advances. Flaws in the concept’s underlying logic suggest that...

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