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CNY

End of the line for the RBA?

• Positive sentiment. US and European equities higher with another night of no new news helping sentiment improve. This has weighed on the JPY.• Will it last? More macro/market aftershocks from the very aggressive hiking cycles are likely over coming months. US earnings expectations look too high.• RBA pause. AUD remains on the back foot. The step down in AU inflation has solidified the case for the RBA to hold steady at next weeks meeting. Another night of no new news on the banking front has helped sentiment continue to improve. Although the moves across the different markets have differed...

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Risk-Taking Rebounds as Rates Volatility Falls

As month-end flows begin to dominate price action in the financial markets, equity futures are preparing for a modest rally at the open, with bank shares and technology indices poised for the biggest gains. Treasury yields are little changed, the dollar is 0.3 percent higher, and other majors are turning in a mixed performance. Implied volatility levels remain relatively elevated as participants hedge themselves against another scare, but term structures are looking interesting: pricing suggests traders expect next week’s US data releases to trigger market movement, but ranges are then expected to tighten in the period preceding decisions from the Bank of...

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No new news is good news

• Positive vibes. No new news on the banking front has supported risk sentiment. Bond yields have moved higher, with oil & base metal prices firmer.• Softer USD. Despite the upswing in US yields the USD has drifted lower. AUD & NZD have been boosted by the more positive risk appetite.• AU data pulse. Retail sales were sluggish. CPI indicator for February due today. A larger pull-back in annual growth could open the door to a RBA pause next week. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight, although there has been a relative sense of calm with no new news regarding the...

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Improved sentiment, but for how long?

• Improved sentiment. Banking concerns have eased, at least temporarily. Equities a little higher, while a shift in expectations has pushed up bond yields.• Stable USD. Positive sentiment has weighed on the JPY, while stronger German data and hawkish ECB and BoE rhetoric boosted EUR and GBP.• AUD cross-check. AUD under pressure on the crosses. AU retail sales released today. The data will shape the RBA’s near-term interest rate thinking. Banking sector induced volatility continued overnight, although in a change from the recent trend sentiment was more positive with confidence about the resilience of the system improving. Reports that US...

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More banking sector worries

• Banking concerns. Worries about Deutsche Bank weighed on European equities, bond yields and the EUR at the end of last week.• USD rebound. Lingering banking sector risks supported the USD. A broader set of signals points to a more difficult backdrop over the period ahead.• AUD pressure. The bounce back in the USD has pushed the AUD lower. AU retail sales, the monthly CPI, and the China PMIs are released this week. Markets remained volatile at the end of last week, with banking sector concerns still bubbling away. On Friday Deutsche Bank came under pressure, with the share price...

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