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CNY

30 Aug 2023

Softer US data run continues

• Macro divergence. Regional Eurozone inflation positively surprised, while US GDP & ADP employment undershot forecasts. This pushed up the EUR.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked to a ~2-week high overnight before easing back. USD & China trends remain more influential than the local data.• AU inflation. Headline inflation slowed to 4.9%pa. But this was due to volatile items. Higher petrol prices point to a re-acceleration next month. Mixed fortunes across US and European markets overnight, inline with the divergence in the incoming data. European equities slipped back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose (German rates increased ~3bps across the yield...

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29 Aug 2023

Markets Jolted

• Softer US data. US consumer confidence & the JOLTS report came in weaker than expected. This weighed on US bond yields & the USD.• US focus. US labour market trends will remain in the spotlight with ADP employment, jobless claims, & non-farm payrolls due over coming days.• AU inflation. Monthly CPI indicator released today. It is an incomplete series, particularly so early in the quarter. The data may generate intra-day AUD volatility. Downside surprises in the US economic data released overnight has generated a meaningful market reaction with equities higher (S&P500 +1.5%), bond yields lower (US 2yr yield -11bps,...

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29 Aug 2023

Markets mean-revert into month end

With month-end flows increasing and the week’s major data releases still ahead, the dollar is trapped in a consolidative range, North American equity bourses are setting up for a modestly-stronger opening, and Treasury yields are incrementally lower across the front end of the curve. North America The number of job vacancies per unemployed worker likely held near the 1.6 mark in July, underlining continued tightness in the US labour market. This morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (out at 10 am) is expected to show roughly 9.45 million jobs available in the month, with the quits rate – a proxy...

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28 Aug 2023

US labour market trends in focus

• Equities higher. Yesterday’s lift in Asian equities flowed through to other markets. The S&P500 rose, while US bond yields eased & the USD consolidated.• AU retail. Australian retail sales exceeded expectations, with spending related to the women’s World Cup supportive. AUD a bit firmer.• US data in focus. There is a string of US labour market releases over the next few days. Will the US’ relative economic strength continue? At the start of a week jam-packed with important economic data, particularly in the US, equities have risen over the past 24hrs while US bond yields have eased, and the...

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28 Aug 2023

Lack of forward guidance from Jackson Hole leaves markets relatively unmoved

The dollar is trading below levels that prevailed ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole. Although markets (briefly) appeared to think otherwise, we read the speech as coming in slightly more dovish than expectations, with repeated use of the phrase “proceed carefully” helping put the central bank on a data-dependent footing into the autumn months. Most major equity indices are up and Treasury yields are slightly lower on an essentially-unchanged monetary policy outlook for the US and the euro area. Commodity-linked currencies are recovering from a short-lived rally that unfolded when China launched half-hearted attempts...

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