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CNY

Soft Landing Hopes Drive Dollar Lower

Global stock markets are holding near record highs, Treasury yields are lower across the curve, and the dollar is in retreat as investors bring forward expectations for policy easing from the Federal Reserve. Data out yesterday morning showed core consumer prices advanced at the slowest annual rate in three years last month, while underlying retail sales shrank, suggesting that the world’s largest economy is losing momentum in the face of still-restrictive interest rates. The core consumer price index climbed 3.6 percent in April from a year ago, marking the weakest pace since April 2021, and “control group” retail sales slumped...

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Calm before the US CPI storm?

• Quiet start. Minimal moves in equities, bonds & FX overnight. AUD little changed despite the jump in base metal prices.• AU Budget. A lot has been pre-announced. Relief measures look set to be designed to lower near-term headline CPI. But this may not impact core CPI.• US & UK data. Ahead of the US CPI report, US Producer Prices are released tonight. Fed Chair Powell also speaks. In the UK, jobs/wages data is due. A quiet start to the new week. The limited news flow has kept markets range bound. The US S&P500 ended the session unchanged. US bond...

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US Exceptionalism Fades, Weighing On Greenback

The “US exceptionalism” trade took another blow yesterday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of Americans filing initial applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to an eight-month high. The jump in jobless claims – up 22,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 231,000 in the week ended May 4 – surprised economists and helped bolster expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, helping erode the dollar’s yield premium and lift other currencies in relative terms. Softness in the labour market dovetails with our belief that re-acceleration hopes for the economy have become overblown, and we think that...

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Trading Ranges Shrink As Information Flow Slows

Risk appetite looks subdued across most asset classes this morning as the data cadence slows and investors keep a wary eye on funding strains in US government debt markets. Equity futures are edging lower ahead of the North American open, yields are holding gains achieved when the US Treasury’s latest 10-year auction met with weak demand in yesterday’s session, and the dollar is advancing against its major rivals. The Treasury is set to sell another $25 billion in 30-year bonds this afternoon. As expected, the Bank of England left its major policy settings unchanged and set the stage for a...

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Fedspeak Propels Dollar Higher

Treasury yields and the dollar jumped by the most in a week during yesterday’s session when Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he expected the central bank to keep rates elevated for an “extended period of time” as it waits for price growth to slow on a sustained basis. Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference, he warned “If inflation starts to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labour market then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates’” but “If we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at...

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