CNY

• Consolidation. Quiet end to a volatile week. Equities continue to recover. Bond yields slip back. USD treading water. AUD below 200-day moving average.• Divergence. RBA pricing still stands out. First RBA cut factored in by Feb. By this point the US Fed & RBNZ are assumed to have cut by ~120-140bps.• Event radar. Several important releases this week including US CPI/retail sales, China data batch, UK jobs/inflation, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. It was a rather quiet and uneventful end to a volatile week on Friday. The recovery in equities continued with the US S&P500 and Japanese Nikkei edging...

• Positive vibes. Cooling US labour market conditions & US Fed hints that a rate cut in September is possible boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD.• AUD reversal. AUD recouped its post AU CPI losses. Core inflation still a long way from home. RBA hike risks extinguished but cuts still some time away.• BoJ moves. Larger than anticipated BoJ rate rise. Policy divergence is reviving the JPY. USD/JPY back below 150. AUD/JPY ~10% below July peak. A positive night for risk assets with signs of a cooling US labour market, moderating wage pressures, and signals from the US...

• Cross-currents. Sell-off in US tech stocks resumes. US bond yields lower, while in FX the USD consolidated. AUD range bound over the past 24hrs.• Q2 CPI. Australian inflation due today. Data will make or break the case for another RBA hike. Consensus forecasts are above the RBA’s assumptions.• Global events. Offshore the China PMIs, EZ CPI, & US ECI are due. The BoJ also meets, while tomorrow morning the US Fed delivers its decision. There were a few renewed wobbles in markets overnight ahead of a jam-packed 24hrs of economic releases and central bank decisions. The sell-off in US...