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CNY

08 Jul 2024

Will Fed Chair Powell rattle markets?

• Quiet markets. Small market moves overnight with reaction to the French election result minimal. Bond yields consolidated. USD a touch firmer.• Fed commentary. Fed Chair Powell speaks tonight. Will he note the loosening in the jobs market & keep the door open to rate cuts later this year?• AU data. Consumer confidence & business conditions due today. Diverging macro/policy trends in Australia’s favour are AUD supportive. A quiet start to the week with the major asset markets confined to tight ranges. Reaction to the surprise result in the second round of the French parliamentary elections where the leftist alliance...

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04 Jul 2024

US payrolls in focus

• US holiday. Quiet trading with the US shut for Independence Day. European equities, yields, & EUR higher on the back of easing French political risks.• AUD upswing. Softer USD & relative macro trends supporting the AUD. AUD/USD near the top of the range it has occupied since early-January.• US jobs. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Signs the US jobs market is cooling could bolster Fed rate cut expectations which would drag on the USD. With the US markets shut for Independence Day it was relatively quiet overnight. There was a bit of a ‘risk on’ vibe in European trading...

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02 Jul 2024

Mixed signals

• Mixed markets. Divergence between US & European equities, while long-end bond yields & the USD gave back a little ground. AUD a touch firmer.• US macro. Fed Chair Powell noted there has been “quite a bit” of inflation progress. But more is needed. The ‘quits rate’ points to lower wages/inflation.• Data flow. Australian retail sales due today. UK election tomorrow. In the US, ADP employment, services ISM, & jobless claims released tonight. While there was a bit of divergence in equities overnight (the major European markets slipped back ~0.5% and the US S&P500 rose ~0.6% to be within striking...

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23 Jun 2024

Inflation & politics this weeks focus

• Macro trends. Weaker EZ PMIs weighed on EUR. Positive US surprises also helped the USD. AUD drifted lower, but still rose over the week.• AUD crosses. Diverging trends still AUD supportive, particularly on crosses. AUD/EUR & AUD/CAD near respective 1-year highs. AUD/JPY north of 106.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI (Weds) & speech by the RBA Dep. Gov in focus. US PCE deflator due (Fri) & first Presidential Election debate will be held. Diverging business PMI data from Europe and the US generated a few intra-session market gyrations on Friday. The US data defied gravity with the PMIs improving...

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20 Jun 2024

AUD cross-currents

• Mixed markets. European equities rose, while US stocks slipped back. Dovish European central bank outcomes weighed on EUR & GBP. USD a bit firmer.• Central banks. SNB cut rates again. The BoE opened the door to a move in August. The cross-currents pushed AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP higher.• Data flow. PMIs in focus today with data from Europe & the US due. Is the US’ outperformance fading? If so, the USD may lose ground. There were several pieces of global economic news overnight, yet for the most part the net financial market moves were modest. Equities across Europe rose again...

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