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CNY

25 Sep 2024

Two steps forward, one step back

• Shaky sentiment. After a strong run equities slipped overnight. Bond yields rose & the USD clawed back ground. AUD & NZD dipped.• AU CPI. Monthly headline CPI indicator decelerated as government measures washed through. But progress on core/services inflation is more gradual.• Event radar. Several US Fed members speak tonight. US jobless claims & durable goods released. Locally, RBA’s FSR & job vacancies are due. After a strong run the positive risk sentiment that has washed through markets reversed course slightly over the past 24hrs. There has been little top-tier economic data released globally, and although geopolitical tensions in...

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25 Sep 2024

China-Administered Sugar Rush Fades

The greenback is holding near an eight-month low as the impact of yesterday’s Chinese stimulus announcement dissipates and an unexpectedly-extreme fall in US consumer sentiment takes a toll on risk appetite. Equity market futures are setting up for a softer open and front-end Treasury yields are pushing slightly lower, even as long-term rates continue their ascendance. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tumbled by the most in three years in September. The headline index dropped 6.9 points to 98.7, well below economist estimates, as households reported a deterioration in current conditions and turned more pessimistic on the future. The share...

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24 Sep 2024

Markets Climb on Chinese Stimulus Hopes

Risk appetite is rebounding across the currency markets after Chinese authorities unveiled a raft of stimulus measures designed to boost growth and reinvigorate market sentiment. In a carefully-choreographed announcement, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate and lowered the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve by 50 basis points, freeing up money for lending. It said it would also cut the interest rate payable on existing mortgages and lower down payments on purchases of second homes. And lending facilities equivalent to almost $70 billion dollars will be made available to brokers...

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23 Sep 2024

Markets Steady Ahead of Fedspeak Deluge

Financial markets are seeing consolidative trading patterns take hold after last Wednesday’s bold and decisive move from the Federal Reserve. The dollar is advancing off Friday’s lows, long-term Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are pointing to a healthy open, and the VIX “fear index” – a measure of expected volatility – is pushing lower, suggesting that policymakers succeeded in delivering an emergency-sized rate cut without convincing investors that an emergency is underway. This week, words might speak louder than actions. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will drop tomorrow, Thursday will bring durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims,...

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09 Sep 2024

Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slower-than-anticipated pace of job creation through July and August, but soon reversed on evidence of underlying stability in labour markets – the unemployment rate edged lower, the prime age employment rate remained historically high, and growth in average hourly earnings showed signs of accelerating. A widely-anticipated speech from Governor Waller didn’t clarify things much either. Odds on a half-percentage-point move shot up as...

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