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CNY

Markets Steady Ahead of Fedspeak Deluge

Financial markets are seeing consolidative trading patterns take hold after last Wednesday’s bold and decisive move from the Federal Reserve. The dollar is advancing off Friday’s lows, long-term Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are pointing to a healthy open, and the VIX “fear index” – a measure of expected volatility – is pushing lower, suggesting that policymakers succeeded in delivering an emergency-sized rate cut without convincing investors that an emergency is underway. This week, words might speak louder than actions. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will drop tomorrow, Thursday will bring durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims,...

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Mean Reversion Dominates Markets After Inconclusive Jobs Report

Friday’s non-farm payrolls report failed to definitively settle the debate over the size of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut. Markets initially added to bets on a plus-sized move after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slower-than-anticipated pace of job creation through July and August, but soon reversed on evidence of underlying stability in labour markets – the unemployment rate edged lower, the prime age employment rate remained historically high, and growth in average hourly earnings showed signs of accelerating. A widely-anticipated speech from Governor Waller didn’t clarify things much either. Odds on a half-percentage-point move shot up as...

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Rate expectations jolted

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market is rebalancing. Fed rate cuts are coming. Non-farm payrolls will make or break the case for 50bps.• AU GDP. Weak growth in Q2, but the level of activity remains high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks today on “the costs of high inflation”. A mixed performance across markets with some of the moves from the previous day extending while others, particularly in FX, partially unwound. European and US...

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Holding steady

• US holiday. Quiet start to the week with the US on holiday. European yields ticked up, while in FX the AUD has been a relative outperformer.• Iron ore. Sluggish China PMI data has weighed on iron ore. But limited AUD spillover, inline with the low correlation with prices over recent years.• US data. Release calendar heats up with US ISM out tonight. Various jobs metrics due the next few days. Positive data could give the USD a boost. With US markets closed for the Labour Day holiday swings across the major asset classes have been minimal at the start...

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Markets Mark Time as Nvidia Earnings Loom

As the hours tick down to this week’s key event risk – Nvidia’s latest earnings release – currency traders are moving to the sidelines and bidding up the greenback. The dollar is climbing against its major rivals, Treasury yields are declining, and North American equity indices are holding firm. The Mexican peso is the clear outperformer on the currency league tables this morning, bouncing back from yesterday’s losses as fears of a diplomatic crisis abate. The exchange rate dropped in yesterday’s session after a constitutional committee approved Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s plan to remove checks and balances in the country’s...

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