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CNY

Precious metals plunge triggers global selloff

A slow-motion flight to safety is underway across the currency markets this morning, as a bloodbath in the precious metals complex extends into a second week. Equity futures are pointing to further losses at the North American open, the US dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders exit risky positions across a range of asset classes, and commodity-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are coming under selling pressure. Gold and silver prices suffered their biggest selloff in years on Friday, prompting many observers to suggest that the “debasement trade” was in...

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USD turnaround

• Reversal. Positive data & Trump’s Fed Chair announcement boosted the USD. Commodities fell. AUD also lost ground (now ~2% below Thursday’s peak).• Macro risks. RBA expected to hike rates (Tues). But yield spreads & AUD already moved. US jobs data might rebound. This could be USD supportive. Global Trends There was a bit of a “reversal of fortune” across markets at the end of last week with US equities falling slightly (S&P500 -0.4%), short-end bond yields rising (US 2yr +4bps), commodities such as copper (-5.2%) and gold (-9.6%) tumbling, and the USD recouping lost ground. In FX, EUR declined...

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RBA U-turn

• Holding on. No change in rates by US Fed. US equities & bond yields consolidate. USD index ticks up, but AUD outperformance continues.• RBA hikes. Stronger CPI boosted RBA rate rise bets. Hike next week ~70% priced, 2 moves baked in by year-end. AUD up at Feb ’23 levels. Global Trends Markets were calmer overnight compared to the bursts of volatility that have washed through recently. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 up near record highs while US bond yields were range bound with the 10yr rate close to its 1-year average (now ~4.24%). In FX, the USD index...

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USD slide continues

• Weaker USD. US equities rose again while the USD remains under pressure. EUR at a multi-year high. AUD touched highest point since Q1 2023.• Macro trends. Q4 Australian CPI out today. Will it help or hinder RBA rate hike expectations? US Fed meets tomorrow. No changes anticipated. Global Trends A few of the recent major market themes continued overnight with European/US equities rising and the USD remaining under downward pressure. More specifically, the US S&P500 (+0.5%) reached a record high while the tech-focused NASDAQ jumped up 0.9% to be within a whisker of its historic peak. US bond yields...

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USD doldrums

• USD weaker. Falls in USD/JPY on back of intervention fears have weighed on USD. NZD also supported by NZ CPI. AUD near top of multi-year range.• Data flow. Q4 AU CPI due tomorrow, US Fed also meets (Thurs AEDT). AUD has had a strong run, but starting to look ‘stretched’ on momentum gauges. Global Trends A few of the recent market themes have remained in place over the past couple of sessions. Risk sentiment has remained positive with the major European and US equity markets edging higher overnight (S&P500 +0.5%). Elsewhere, bond yields ticked down a bit with the...

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