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30 Apr 2025

US economic tariff pain

• Holding on. Some volatility but net changes in US equities & bond yields were modest overnight. USD index a bit firmer but AUD holds its ground.• US GDP. A large jump in imports ahead of tariffs meant US GDP contracted in Q1. Forward indicators point to slower US domestic growth over 2025.• AU CPI. Q1 inflation a little higher than consensus but inline with RBA’s thinking. Underlying trends point to further RBA interest rate relief in May. Global Trends Despite a deluge of global economic data, particularly out of the US, and a few intra-session bursts of volatility the...

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29 Apr 2025

Tariff impacts starting to show

• US support. More tariff headlines. Sentiment improved with US equities & the USD rising. Bond yields declined. AUD & NZD slipped back.• AU inflation. Q1 CPI out today. Expected to show a further moderation in inflation supporting the case for another RBA rate cut in May.• US data. US Q1 GDP due tonight. Leading indicators point to a step down in growth. Will it be as bad as feared? Outcomes vs expectations matter. Global Trends US tariff related headlines continue to generate market gyrations with the overnight newsflow somewhat supporting demand for US financial assets. US equities rose with...

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29 Apr 2025

Easing Trade Tensions Support Dollar, Loonie Languishes on Still-Unknown Election Result

Market sentiment is holding firm this morning as earnings reports come in, the cadence of data releases increases, and trade tensions show further signs of easing. Treasury yields are holding steady, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are up incrementally, and foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed basis with the dollar up against most of its major rivals including the euro and yen. The Canadian dollar is modestly lower after Mark Carney’s Liberal Party achieved a thinner-than-expected margin of victory in yesterday’s close-fought Canadian election, driving whiplash price action within an incredibly-tight trading range. As we go to print,...

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22 Apr 2025

Selling Moderates as Assault on Fed Independence Slows

The greenback is finding its footing once again after selling pressure intensified during yesterday’s session when President Trump doubled down on his attacks against Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. In a post on social media that landed after multiple firing threats, Trump demanded that the central bank deliver “pre-emptive” rate cuts, saying inflation is trending “nicely downward” and “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW”. Equity futures are setting up for a bounce at the open, yield curves are flattening, and currencies like the euro, pound, yen, and...

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21 Apr 2025

Markets Plunge as Trump Administration Steps Up Threats Against Fed

Financial markets are getting hit again this morning, with US equity indices, Treasuries, and the dollar all tumbling in synchrony as investors assess new threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence against an increasingly-forbidding growth backdrop in the world’s largest economy. The greenback dropped more than 1 percent on a trade-weighted basis in overnight markets after the Trump administration stepped up its attacks on Jerome Powell, threatening to demolish the Fed’s hard-won independence from political pressure. In a series of posts on his Truth Social platform last week, Trump argued that interest rates should be cut, saying “Powell’s termination cannot come...

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