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CNY

10 Feb 2025

Markets Look Through Renewed Tariff Threats

The dollar is up modestly against its major rivals after Donald Trump verbally threatened to increase tariffs for the third weekend in a row. In a press briefing conducted on Air Force One ahead of yesterday’s Super Bowl, the president told reporters that he would unveil new reciprocal tariffs—levies designed to match foreign protectionist measures—in the coming days, and will impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum products from all US trading partners today. Reciprocal tariffs—which are designed to match protectionist measures in other countries—are generally well supported on both sides of the aisle, and are not terribly impactful...

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09 Feb 2025

Tariff related market wobbles

• Market swings. Mix of solid US data & tariff news weighed on equities, pushed up bond yields, & supported the USD. AUD & NZD lost some ground.• Volatility. More US tariff announcements likely. This can generate volatility. Push-pull forces still at play. Further headline driven swings anticipated.• Event Radar. In addition to US tariff news markets will be focused on US CPI, US retail sales, & Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional Testimony this week. Global Trends Some renewed pressure on equity and bond markets emerged on Friday night. The US S&P500 slipped back ~1% with the tech-sector underperforming (NASDAQ -1.4%)....

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07 Feb 2025

Positive Jobs Reports Bolster Risk Appetite

The US job creation engine slowed in January, but revisions to November and December numbers illustrated continued strength in labour markets, helping keep the Federal Reserve firmly sidelined. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 143,000 jobs were added in the month—undershooting the 175,000-position consensus forecast—but December’s headline print was revised higher to 307,000 from the 256,000 originally estimated, and November’s number jumped to 261,000 from 212,000, lifting the three-month average to 237,000. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1 percent, and average hourly earnings climbed 0.5 percent month-over-month, accelerating from the pace set in the...

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06 Feb 2025

US jobs report in focus

• Holding pattern. Modest moves in most markets overnight. JPY’s upswing extends. AUD range bound just above its 1-month average.• UK rates. BoE cut interest rates by 25bps. 2 members voted for a larger move. More easing expected over time. AUD/GBP supported overnight.• US jobs. US employment report in focus tonight. Signs the US labour market is cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets & drag on the USD. Global Trends A relative sense of calm in most markets overnight with only a few macro announcements, no fresh news regarding US trade tariffs, and the US jobs report due...

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06 Feb 2025

Markets Stabilise as Policy Risks Recede

Financial markets are overcoming post-traumatic stress syndrome three days after Donald Trump started—and then temporarily paused—a potentially-catastrophic trade war with Canada and Mexico. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower and major equity bourses are headed for a stronger open after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called tariffs a “means to an end,” and said the new administration is focused on bringing down interest rates. The dollar is holding firm against its rivals. The number of Americans submitting initial applications for unemployment benefits rose incrementally to 219,000 in the week ended February 1, and continuing claims fell slightly in the prior...

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