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CAD

08 Nov 2023

All talk, no action in markets

The dollar is staging a modest rebound after a cast of hawkish Fed speakers worked to put the rate cut genie back in the bottle yesterday. In a series of appearances, Bowman, Goolsbee and Logan all noted that inflation remained too high and the labour market was still healthy by pre-pandemic standards, and Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg there’d been “no discussion” of lowering interest rates among policymakers. Bets on at least four quarter-point cuts by early 2025 slipped slightly through the session, and Treasury yields retraced some of their gains. More Fedspeak is in the offing today: Traders are expecting...

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07 Nov 2023

Trade whack-a-mole

Based on this morning’s data from the Census Bureau, one could be forgiven for imagining that the trade tariffs implemented under the Trump administration – and kept largely intact under Biden – are working. The US goods deficit in the first nine months of the year shrank relative to the same period in 2022. And although Mexico’s share of US merchandise imports dipped slightly relative to China’s in September, it remained well ahead on a 12-month rolling average basis. Calls to eliminate trade deficits by applying across-the-board 10-percent tariffs – growing louder on the campaign trail ahead of the 2024...

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07 Nov 2023

Fedspeak back in driver’s seat

 Aaaaannd we’re back. Ten-year Treasuries are again yielding more than 4.63 percent and the dollar is up after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari warned rates might have further to climb in the months ahead. “Before we declare that we’re absolutely done, we’ve solved the problem, let’s get more data and see how the economy evolves,” he told Fox News yesterday, “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. As if to punctuate Kashkari’s point, the Reserve Bank of Australia last night set a...

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06 Nov 2023

Weekly Chartbook

Labour market slack is shrinking. Fed expectations have fallen sharply. Bank of Canada projections have dropped more significantly. But economic surprise gaps are still very wide. Underlying growth signals are surprisingly stable. And rate differentials remain dollar-supportive. US economic policy uncertainty has fallen to record lows… huh?

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06 Nov 2023

All together now

With incoming economic data softening across North America, market projections for central bank policy paths have shifted significantly in the last few weeks. In contrast with implied market pricing on October 18 – when the Federal Reserve was seen delivering at least one, maybe two cuts by November 2024, even as the Bank of Canada was expected to keep rates on hold – the US is now seen slashing rates at least three times, while Canada is expected to cut at least twice. To us, this has reduced mispricing embedded in dollar-Canada rate differentials, and has temporarily reduced downside risks...

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