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CAD

07 Feb 2024

Sleepy Markets Prepare for Uneventful Session 

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Markets aren’t providing us with much to write about this morning: equity futures are setting up for a tame open, yields are basically flat, and most major currencies are less than 0.10 percent off yesterday’s levels. Yesterday’s round of Fedspeak was relatively hawkish. Outgoing Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester – a voter until June – said policymakers might feel confident enough to begin easing policy “later this year,” but “It would be a mistake to move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation is on a sustainable and...

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06 Feb 2024

Risk Sentiment Thaws on Chinese Recovery Efforts

Risk-sensitive assets are seeing a modest sentiment boost this morning as Chinese authorities move to stem the bleeding in stock markets, with top officials reportedly preparing to brief President Xi Jinping on their efforts. Onshore share indices moved higher overnight after the government imposed new restrictions on short-sellers, the state-owned Central Huijin Investment Ltd. said it would add more exchange-traded funds to its holdings, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission pledged “greater efforts” in encouraging buying from institutional investors. US equity futures are setting up for a stronger open, ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower after a circa-28 basis point...

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05 Feb 2024

Dollar Steamrolls Higher on Crumbling Rate Cut Bets 

Currency markets are retreating in the face of yet another dollar onslaught after Jerome Powell again warned markets not to expect a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, adding to Friday’s hotter-than-expected non-farm payrolls report in driving yields higher. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped almost 7 basis points higher and odds on a May rate cut fell to 70 percent when Chair Powell doubled down on comments made during last week’s post-decision press conference in an interview with CBS News ‘60 Minutes’ programme. In the appearance, aired last night, Powell warned that it was unlikely officials would reach the...

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02 Feb 2024

Dollar Trades Heavy Into Non-Farm Payrolls

Treasury yields and the dollar are slipping, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the job market slowing in January – clearing the way for more easing talk from Federal Reserve officials. Brace for whiplash price action. Statistical and weather-related factors could trigger a dramatic miss in the headline number, with the range of analyst estimates looking unusually wide – from 150,000 to 290,000 – and Bloomberg pointing out that a negative print is within the realm of possibility. Benchmark and population revisions could meaningfully lower trend rates, even if the underlying job market remains relatively stable. Traders...

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01 Feb 2024

Markets Tiptoe Higher After Yesterday’s Bruising Session

The dollar is trading on a firmer footing and Treasury yields are steadying this morning after risk-sensitive asset classes suffered the worst losses in four months yesterday. The pound is coming off its lows after the Bank of England held rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting and the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee split into three different blocs, with two members voting for additional hikes, while one member cast the first vote for a rate cut since the pandemic. The hawks: Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, warned that rising household incomes and tight labour markets could translate into more durable...

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